Winter’s Grudge: Several snow-producing systems expected tonight through Friday

A warm and sunny Tuesday will give way to on-and-off rain/snow bands across the region through Friday

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  • A Busy forecast looking ahead, but at least Tuesday is looking warm, dry and overall very nice.
  • We are talking about some grassland fire danger, with perhaps a few isolated afternoon showers, but otherwise temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

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  • Most of Tuesday night will remain dry, with rain/snow showers pushing into the region right around midnight.

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  • Notice after midnight activity picks up pretty well, particularly in the form of rain South of I-90.
  • Could have a few heavy snow bands embedded in there as well… with temperatures so close to 32­° its hard to rule out heavy wet snow.

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  • Models currently show most snow activity sticking North of I-90 Wednesday morning, which could leave areas of the Black Hills high and dry.
  • Don’t count on any weather conditions to stick around for long, more rain/snow showers will move in later Wednesday afternoon and evening.

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  • Notice the difference in temperatures by Wednesday afternoon, with almost 50° possible towards Pine Ridge, and temperatures close to freezing as you get towards the Buffalo and Lemmon communities.

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  • Rain/Snow showers will continue to strafe the region towards Wednesday evening, with most activity starting to transition over to snow… and possibly even freezing rain.

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  • Overall our first system on Wednesday looks to stick mostly to the higher elevations and North of I-90.
  • Northeastern Wyoming looks to avoid most of the action, with maybe a trace or an inch possible in some areas.
  • 3″-6″ for the Northern Hills may be a little high…. but with the snow ratios being what they are… Heavy wet snow can accumulation quickly with even fast moving snow bands.

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  • System #2 enters the picture by early Thursday morning, moving from South to North and bringing plenty of moisture to the region.
  • Whereas the Northern portion of our area got most of the action on Wednesday, areas South of I-90 can expect most of the action Thursday and Friday.

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  • That’s not to say snow bands couldn’t make their way North by the afternoon, but most of the energy does look to remain South… for now.
  • It’s also going to depend heavily on whether or not snow or rain is more frequent. It can be tough to tell this far out, but so far Thursday shows a slushy mess for most of us.

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  • By Thursday evening most areas to the North will see drying conditions, as it appears things are winding down.
  • Recent changes in forecast guidance suggests, however, that another punch of snow could be in store for the Southern Hills and areas South of I-90.

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  • By Friday morning, heavy bands of snow are possible near Hot Springs, Edgemont, and the Southern Hills region.
  • This “pocket” of snow activity has bounced around over the last 24 hours… so not sold on that being the exact location just yet – but it’s good to keep tabs on it.

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  • Forecast guidance suggests this activity could persist all the way into the afternoon.. which areas of Northwest Nebraska, Southeast Wyoming and Southwest South Dakota likely to receive some form of precipitation.
  • This forecast will change… alot… so make sure to check back in as we get closer to Friday

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  • Having that said… Snow accumulations have crept Northward in recent model runs for Thursday and Friday.
  • If anything, this could all turn out to be rain… so no need to make preparations for now… just something to keep an eye on.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Basically, once we get past midnight tonight all bets are off. Rain/snow showers will be frequent and persistent in some cases, with breaks here and there. Any cold spots could produce heavy, wet snow within these bands, so make sure to stay alert. The good news is the March sun angle and relatively mild temperatures will help keep most roads on the slushy side, as opposed to icy side for Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll have to be a little more cautious with the overnight hours as icy conditions could develop… and snow will stick to roads better.

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