6:33 PM Forecast Update: Advisories posted for the Black Hills, I-90 corridor

A cold front will move through late tonight through Sunday, bringing winter conditions to the Black Hills Region

SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE  – New advisories and update have been posted as of 9:02 AM this morning, click HERE for the latest information!

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SATURDAY FORECAST DISCUSSION

6:33 PM FORECAST UPDATE

  • New winter weather advisories have been issued for areas along the I-90 corridor in the Black Hills, along with the Central and Southern Hills.
  • These new advisories DO NOT include Rapid City or areas East of the Black Hills, but impacts could still be felt in these areas.
  • Light freezing rain/drizzle is expected to start late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon and go into the overnight hours through Early Monday morning.
  • Accumulations of up to 2″-5″ will be possible, with snow covered roads and icy conditions through this time period.
  • Winter Weather conditions will begin as early as tonight in areas north of the Black Hills, and will slowly move South overnight.
  • Temperatures will drop through Sunday morning to near zero in some portions of our area by Sunday evening, leading to freezing roads and slick spots.
  • Make sure to stick with NewsCenter1 for the latest updates with this system.

  • A quick snapshot of this afternoon shows pleasant temperatures int he 50s and 60s, with some slightly breezy conditions across the area this afternoon.
  • Clouds will be on the increase, as our next system approaches our area in three separate waves, bringing different conditions.

  • Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for portions of our region, including Northwest South Dakota, Carter County Montana and the Sheridan County plains in Wyoming.
  • The cautionary tale here will be the freezing drizzle/rain that is expected to arrive before the snow – this will make roads slick even with low snow accumulations.
  • It is still possible that these advisories could shift further South into the I-90 corridor and the Black Hills by this afternoon, but for now they remain out of the advisory area.

  • Warm temperatures will greet the first portion of our day, with plenty of 50s and 60s to go around.
  • Our first cold front will move in this afternoon, bringing a low cloud deck and a few breezy conditions. This will begin to drop temperatures.
  • Most impacts from this system wont arrive until after midnight tonight, and for areas around the I-90 corridor – we may not see any impacts until mid Sunday morning.

  • First signs of trouble will be for the Northern portion of our area around midnight, as our second cold front begins to push from North to South.
  • Freezing Drizzle will be possible over large portions of our region, even the Black Hills, despite the fact that the main snow bands will still be far to our North.
  • Use caution if you start seeing some areas of drizzle and shiny roads – that may not just be liquid gathering on the surface!

  • Snow bands will be relatively well entrenched North of I-90 by mid morning Sunday, but dry air at the surface may prevent snow from reaching the ground in area around Rapid City for quite some time.
  • Depending on exactly when low level moisture reinforces the overriding system, The Black hills could hold off most snow bands until the late morning.
  • Northern Hills will more than likely see impacts earlier in the morning, and Southern Hills by late morning and lunchtime.

  • Temperatures will drop throughout the morning, our high temps will more than likely be early Sunday morning when we are all mostly asleep.
  • This is how Wednesday’s wet roads quickly froze up and made travel more difficult – expect this same scenario on Sunday.

  • By Sunday afternoon, snow band coverage will be much more widespread – but weaker as dry air continues to sap the strength of this system.
  • Be cautious though, as temperatures continue to fall throughout the day it will take very little accumulation to make roads slick, particularly if a little freezing rain takes place first.
  • A few heavier bands will set up here and there, making for pockets of poor visibility and possible snow squalls.

  • By Sunday evening, most accumulating snow will start to push out as temperatures continue to drop into the single teens and single digits.
  • Northerly winds at about 10-20 mph could lead to areas of blowing snow – and snow covered roads even after accumulating snow has ended.
  • Be careful driving at night in these conditions, and dress warm.

  • By Monday morning, snow has moved out and a crisp, sunny & cold day will follow.
  • Roads will still be slick Monday morning, but good common sense driving and a few extra minutes should get you to where you need to go.

  • The good news is winds should be rather calm by Monday morning, but temperatures will still be quite low.
  • Future temperature maps have places like Rapid City optimistically around 15°, but I think single digits will be more likely given the fresh snow cover.

  • A general snow accumulation map draws your eyes to two specific areas – mainly North of I-90 and the southern Hills.
  • I think 2″-5″ of snow for Southeastern Montana and Northwestern South Dakota seems reasonable, with a little ice underneath the snow.
  • I-90 corridor, including Rapid City and Spearfish could see 1″-3″ of snow. Once again, be wary of freezing drizzle/rain underneath these light accumulations.
  • Some short range forecast guidance models show a stubborn band setting up just West of Hot Springs going through Edgemont… perhaps an isolated pocket of 3-5″ of snow is possible – but I would keep your expectations moderate.
  • Everyone else could generally see anything from just a trace to about 2″ – this is yet again another clipper: Cold, breezy and small snow accumulations

  • Good news is after Monday, temperatures seem to recover throughout the week.
  • A small system Wednesday could bring a little rain/snow mix to our region – but as of now it doesn’t look like there will be any well rounded impacts from that system.
  • Thursday and Friday look promising – temperatures climbing back into the mid 50s- hopefully staying that way for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Can you believe its only early November? Some estimates say the Northern Hills have already received 40 inches of snow O_o …. pretty wild. In the case of Sundays system, just remember that it doesn’t matter what kind of tires you have, or if you have 4 wheel, 8 wheel, or 10,000 wheel – ice takes no prisoners. Drive like my granny does around corners (no offense Granny) and everyone should be able to get where they need to go. Untreated roads will be the real dingers, so if you can travel on treated roads it should make things easier. More than likely, a Saturday afternoon update will come through with a few more advisories, perhaps the I-90 corridor being included this time around. Stay alert, and remember that conditions… and the forecast can change quickly in the Black Hills. Be proud of that! We live in a truly unique area of the country. Thanks for trusting us with your forecast, be safe out there. – Brant

Here’s our beautiful Saturday morning Sunrise from Rapid City.

Current Conditions

 

 

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