Windy Monday, Sunny Tuesday, Messy Wednesday: Mixed precipitation expected midweek

Warm, Windy conditions are expected today, with a nice Tuesday to follow. Wednesday could be a bit tricky with Winter conditions expected.

  • A warm day expected across much of the region today, but windy as well.
  • Temperatures are expected to hit the 50s through much of the region.

  • A Wind Advisory has been posted for areas North and East of the Black Hills until 4 PM.
  • We know we have high winds just above the surface, the question is how much of it will actually mix to the surface before an expected warm front shuts down the mixing process.
  • I think we could be surprised with a few higher wind gusts, up to 55 MPH – It’ll be a giant mixing bowl of air parcels across the region today.

  • Northeast Wyoming could see some higher wind gusts as well, around the 30-40 mph range but just below advisory criteria today.
  • If you have high profile vehicles and plan on travelling across the plains today, keep an hold of that steering wheel!

  • Temperatures could reach the 60° mark out towards Philip an central portions of South Dakota.
  • Northeast Wyoming will hang right around the upper 40s and low 50s – higher elevations should hit the mid 40s as well.

  • Tuesday looks to hang on to those mild and warm conditions, calm winds out of the Southeast are expected.
  • Wednesday will introduce a messy system, both in how its organized and the different precipitation that we could end up with by Wednesday evening.

  • The long range model shows most activity moving into Northeastern Wyoming by 9 AM to 12 PM.
  • Freezing Drizzle could move into West River and South Dakota by this time as well – but looks to be spotty at first with low impacts.

  • Freezing Drizzle, Mist, Fog, Rain, Sleet, Snow, Graupel, Cats, Dogs, and other things will move through the Black Hills Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
  • The long range forecast models runs are a little “hot” – that is to say I think the computer is being a little overzealous about the coverage and intensity of precipitation.
  • Odds are it’ll be spotty, and come through in individual bands – so on and off mixed precipitation through Wednesday is the more likely scenario.

  • By late Wednesday we’re expecting a full transition to snow with temperatures in the 20s.
  • Snow will end from Montana pushing Southeast through Wyoming and South Dakota.
  • By Thursday we’ll be waking up to Mostly Sunny skies, and cooler temperatures.

  • So far, any noteworthy accumulations look like they’re going to stick to the Northern Hills and Northeastern Wyoming.
  • Even with that said, the possibility of freezing drizzle and freezing rain means even light snow accumulations could make things slick – that will be the bigger story here.
  • If I had to throw my chips in on accumulations this far out – I could see 3″-6″ in the Northern Hills, with 2″-4″ in Northeastern Wyoming and the I-90 corridor and 1″-3″ for everywhere else.
  • Stay tuned, because I still have time to change my bets!

DISCUSSION

Not a big system on Wednesday, but ice can put a damper on anyone’s day if we’re not driving the conditions. We’ll know more about Wednesday as it gets closer, no reason to cancel any plans or make any big shifts just yet. Rest of the week looks pretty darn good, with a nice weekend on tap in the 50s. Next week, signs point to the return of cold weather, and that’s about as much as we know so far. We know Thanksgiving is coming up, with people wanting to travel. We’ll try and get you as much advanced warning as possible to any potential system. Hold on to your hats today! – Brant

Current Conditions

 

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily

AlertMe