Weathering the Hills: If the low goes low we get no snow

Our forecast teeters on next week's storm track, and there could be impacts

A few showers will accompany the cold front, and quickly push past our area

WIND ADVISORY & AIR QUALITY ADVISORY – Gusts up to 45 mph from the Northwest will be possible. West Rapid City could see air quality deteriorate as dust and other articles are picked up with the passing front

TODAY: Temperatures will reach the low 50’s/high 40’s before a cold front will come through around lunch time. Gusty Northwest winds around 45 mph will be possible, wind advisories and air quality advisories have been posted from Rapid City and surrounding areas. Very high grassland fire danger is also a concern for West River, so please use caution in that regard. Dry air will quickly move in, along with cooler temperatures.

Winter Solstice

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE! The sun will be at its lowest point at 3:23 p.m. this afternoon, from that point the days will be getting longer instead of shorter.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy conditions will accompany drier air Friday evening. A few Northwesterly wind gusts could remain, around 10-20 mph. Temperatures should hold around the mid 20’s.

GFS Temperature model Friday through Monday

WEEKEND FORECAST: Saturday will see a slight uptick in winds again, but below advisory levels. Partly Cloudy skies and high 30’s will make it feel a little more like winter, with Saturday night dipping into the lower 20’s. Westerly winds Saturday evening could create some warmer areas with down sloping winds.

Sunday will be Sunny to start, then a few clouds will roll in. Temperatures will recover a bit to the low 40’s as a temporary ridge sets up. Winds will be shifting to the Southeast in the afternoon, 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: A slight uptick in energy on Monday could result in a few rain/snow showers. Partly Cloudy skies otherwise and lower 40’s for high temperatures. No travel impacts expected at this time for Monday or Monday evening.

This Scenario would leave the Black Hills high and dry

This scenario would give the Black Hills a good chance to receive snow

CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND: Things look pretty steady for Christmas Day, temperatures in the upper 30’s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry. Tuesday night things get a little tricky.

As of right now, it does look like a winter storm system will be developing in the Great Plains, quickly moving Northeast towards the Great Lakes. The eventual track of this system is crucial to what impacts the Black Hills could see. A more Southerly path up through Kansas and Eastern Nebraska could *literally* leave us out in the cold with no snow whatsoever. A more Northerly path through Northeastern Colorado into the panhandle of Nebraska would not only put us in a position to see snow, but perhaps a good amount of it.

Regardless, impacts look likely for East River and Eastern Nebraska Wednesday through Friday of next week, going through Minnesota into the Great Lakes. If you have plans to travel East from the Black Hills, this is a forecast you will want to watch carefully. Temperatures look to drop into the 20’s late next week, so there is at least high confidence of cooler weather.

Have a safe and happy Weekend!

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily