10:20 AM UPDATE: Enhanced (3/5) risk for severe weather Tuesday evening
Despite yesterday's lucky break, today will have strong potential for severe weather this evening
- Most concerns for strong to severe storms will be for the late afternoon and evening hours, the first part of today will be warm, and relatively sunny
- Temperatures will range from 80s to 90s in the Great Plains to 70s and 80s in the Black hills and Wyoming
- Storms will start popping off in the late afternoon and early evening in Wyoming and Montana, with a few isolated storms in the Black Hills
- Those storms will race across our region into the early and late evening, gaining strength and organization as they approach South Dakota
- Before I continue, I want to highlight why today is NOT like yesterday, as i feel an explanation is owed to those who expected widespread severe weather yesterday and saw none.
- Our saving grace was a thin line of clouds and spotty showers that moved through Monday morning. This cut off the heating process, a key ingredient needed for the expected severe weather yesterday evening
- We got a lucky break yesterday, observing only a few spotty areas of gusty winds and hail, most of us saw very little.
- Today is already different, with plenty of sunshine and heating expected
- Dew points could reach the mid to upper 60’s, a vast reservoir of energy for thunderstorms to feed on once they rumble through our area
- Dynamics will also be better this evening, with the Jet stream close by to offer upper level support for long-lived thunderstorms and even supercells
- We’ve only had one other day this year with an enhanced risk, and we received 80 mph winds and areas of softball sized hail
- MOST people will NOT see these extreme impacts, but Murphy’s Law clearly states that those who believe they’re immune and don’t prepare naturally attract these events. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
- It’s easy to focus solely on the tornado threat, but it is by far the smallest and least impactful part of today’s anticipated event. Although a few will be possible, hail and straight line winds will be the main threats
- I will keep the flood threat high for Areas of the Eastern Foothill and Rapid City. Stay AWAY from fast moving creeks and river, especially when heavy rain is expected
- In the areas shaded in Orange, you will want to consider what kind of plans you are making, and whether or not the impacts expected today could put you in a potentially dangerous situation.
- These will be organized, strong storms that move very quickly. Make sure you are checking the forecast every 3-4 hours for updates, and have a way to receive warnings
- Timing things out for the afternoon, the day will be relatively quiet across the region, save for a stray thunderstorm in the Black Hills or higher elevations of Wyoming
- Organized strong thunderstorms will begin to develop both in Montana and Wyoming generally after 3 PM today
- Activity will pick up towards the 6, 7 and 8 pm time frame, with a few isolated strong storms popping up in and around the Black Hills
- The atmosphere will quickly become unstable as upper level dynamics move through our region, particularly areas North of Interstate 90
- Multiple models hint at a “bow” like structure with thunderstorms this evening indicating high, straight line winds
- This will be one of the more active time periods of large hail and damaging winds
- By around midnight, most activity should be pushing towards the central and eastern portions of South Dakota
- Skies will be partly cloudy to clear, with calmer weather moving in by Wednesday, save for a few isolated thunderstorms
Sunday, July 14th’s Severe weather, as presented by the NC1 weather App
- I want you all to have a way to receive warnings this evening, even if it’s not with us. (really). Our passion as meteorologists is to empower YOU with information to make informed decisions and keep your friends and family safe. The NC1 weather app is a great way to get instantaneous warnings, getting the when, where, and what of each storm that moves into your area as they are occuring. Our weather team will be watching this afternoon and evening closely, giving you updates as they become available. Hope for the best, but prepare for the forecasted event. We dodged a bullet yesterday, but mother nature doesn’t keep score. Your pictures and updates are extremely helpful, so thanks to all of you who continue to send us information, we’ll need your help again this evening! Keep your eye on the sky and respect mother nature’s boundaries, don’t risk your safety for a good picture or video. Thanks for keeping us as your source for weather coverage, we take your safety seriously and want to empower you to make informed decisions. Be safe out there. -Brant