Unsettled Week: Rain/Snow expected Wednesday through Friday
After a warm & dry start to the week, several system will move through the Black Hills Region starting late Tuesday night all the way through Friday
Patchy areas of fog could develop this morning, here’s a look at road conditions across the region
- The rest of today will see dry and warm conditions, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the area.
- Some areas could easily see upper 50s, with an emphasis on the Eastern foothills where downsloping winds could produce some isolated pockets of 60°
- Early Tuesday will look much of the same, with a few more clouds beginning to stream through the region and temperatures in the 50s and some cases 60s.
- It’s Tuesday night where things become unsettled, with rain/snow showers pushing in from Wyoming could bring potential impacts to portions of our area.
- Tuesday night through Wednesday morning will feature quickly dropping temperatures and a Rain/Snow mix across the region.
- Most impacts are expected North of I-90 as far as snow is concerned, some areas could see isolated pockets of heavy snow given the Snow ratios and heavy banding that is expected.
- Areas South of I-90 could see some impacts, but so far most activity looks to be in the form of rain. Higher elevations of the Black Hills will be the exception to this rule.
- Snow activity will continue into Wednesday afternoon, particularly for the higher elevations of the Black Hills and areas North of I-90.
- This isn’t to say we couldn’t see impacts elsewhere, Rapid City and the I-90 corridor is susceptible to cold pockets, and could see a few good snow bands as well.
- Wednesday evening gives us a potential break form the action, with temperatures still hovering right around freezing during this time.
- Still, don’t count out a few rain/snow showers Wednesday evening.
- Snow accumulation models aren’t hinting at a whole bunch of snow, but it may be struggling with rain/snow mixing so these numbers could be higher.
- What we can see is most of the concentrations for Tuesday night into Wednesday look to be in the Black Hills and North of I-90.
- Our next round pops in sometime Thursday morning, and this time around the Southern portion of our area will likely see more action than areas North.
- By Thursday afternoon and evening, the current timeline hints at energy eventually pushing into most of the region with a rain/snow mix.
- The good news is with the late March sun angle, any daytime snow accumulations may be minimized.
- Good banding could still be in the forecast though, something we’ll keep an eye on.
- Thursday night hints at a *possible* break in the action, with most activity hanging South of the region near Cheyenne, WY and the Nebraska panhandle.
- Still many questions about Friday’s potential, so far looks like it’ll be a decent storm system that will cross just south of the SD/NE border.
- Not sold on that solution just yet though, need more model runs before we can rule this one out for Friday.
- With Wednesday through Friday combined, we see more of an even distribution of snow potential – save for areas of Northeaster Wyoming that seem to miss out on most of the action.
- Moderate accumulations look likely in some isolated spots on the plains, but the higher elevations will once again see the best chances for heavy snow pockets.
Basically, the first part of the week looks nice, and then after Tuesday night through basically Friday all bets are off. We could be talking about 4 separate system here, or one long one (hopefully not the latter). Snow accumulations will be tough to forecast here, as half a degree of temperatures could mean the difference between all rain and 4-6″ of snow. This is one of those forecasts that will be up-to-the-hour changes all the way up to Tuesday evening.
The good news, is that the March sun angle will help melt things for the most part… so long as most of our potential snow happens during the daylight hours. Good amount of moisture is expected… that much we can say.
This weekend looks dry so far, but we’ll keep an eye on it. I expected only a few rain/snow showers this past Sunday and we ended up getting 2″-4″ of snow towards Black Elk Peak… soooo stay tuned through this week.
A PERSONAL NOTE….
We are living through some tumultuous times… to say the least. I’ve already seen amazing, incredible acts of kindness from everyday people – right here in this community. We’re going to need alot of that… not just over the next couple days but over the long term. Sometimes you can see things that seem scary, or perhaps a little overwhelming at times. Remember not only to nourish your physical body, but to nourish your humanity and spirit as well.
Remember that weather is a promise of something new, every day. In your quiet moments, as you spend your time hunkering down wherever you may be, take in everything that this beautiful landscape has to offer. Watch snowflakes as they come together and gather quietly in your surroundings. Watch as the sun brings warmth and change to our landscape… as all living things begin to stir at the promise of Spring. The weather brings promise of something new, and that even the worst storms will eventually give way to a starry sky.
I look forward to bringing all of you the weather each and every day, if only to remind everyone that a new day is just on the horizon.
Much love to you all