They’re Back: Isolated storm chances increase today, Wednesday

A brief break before we go right back into an isolated afternoon thunderstorm pattern

  • It didn’t last long, but we’ll take any break we can get. A weak Cold front is expected to move through the region today, possibly kicking off a few afternoon thunderstorms
  • Temperatures will struggle to reach the 70s and 80s, and moisture levels will be relatively low, so not expecting anything significant out of these afternoon pop-ups

  • Forecast Guidance shows a few storms popping up around 2-4 pm along the eastern foothills, particularly from Rapid City to Hot Springs
  • Not expecting much from these pop ups, but you always want to be on guard from potential rogue thunderstorms in the Summer that pack a punch

  • There is a frequent North to South boundary that forms over the Black Hills, separating relatively dry air from Wyoming and relatively moisture rich air from South Dakota during the Summer
  • This is a classic focal point for rogue thunderstorms to develop, even on days when they aren’t necessarily forecasted, I believe this line is where storms will initiate this afternoon.

  • You can see this example from Monday afternoon looking Southwest from Rapid City
  • Even with stable, dry air aloft and low surface dew points, isolated cumulus towers were able to initiate…. and almost get something going.
  • Thankfully, they never did and my forecast for dry conditions was spared

  • Tuesday will be relatively isolated and spotty, but Wednesday will present the opportunity for more afternoon and evening thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday evening
  • Northwesterly winds aloft will bring upper air energy that will enhance upward motion in the atmosphere, and surface winds will turn southeasterly bringing in surface moisture and raising dew points. Just like that’ we’ll be back in a stormy afternoon pattern once again
  • These conditions will persist and increase through Thursday and Friday, with a gradual return to sunshine and small afternoon pop-ups for the weekend

Through the next seven days, any storm activity that does pop up will generally be spotty and temporary, even if they’re strong. Make sure you are still making plans and getting outside to enjoy these amazing temperatures. It almost feels like “the year without a summer” with temperatures in the mid 70s when we should be in the mid to upper 90s. THIS meteorologist is not complaining, get out there, but be safe! – Brant

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