The Climate Prediction Center just put out their 2022 winter outlook, here’s what it means for you

What could winter look like this year?

RAPID CITY, S.D. – The Climate Prediction Center put out their 2022 winter outlook. We are in a La Nina for the third year in a row. Which means the the ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America are below average. Check out Anna Hamelin’s article for more information on La Nina/El Nino. This year’s winter outlook follows a pretty typical pattern for La Nina winters. When looking at these graphics, it’s important to remember that they are averages, so we may see some times during the winter where our weather doesn’t seem like it fits into the patters shown bellow. Also of note, is that we’ve been in a La Nina for the last to years and our weather was warmer and drier than expected. Climate outlooks should be thought of as a guideline rather than a forecast.

Temperature

Winter Temp

 

 

For our area we have a 33 – 50% chance for below average temperatures.

Precipitation

Winter Precip

 

For our area, we have equal chances for above and below average precipitation. With a greater chance for below average temperatures, we could see a larger percentage of our precipitation fall as snow.

Drought

Winter Drought

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With equal chances for above and below average precipitation, our drought conditions are expected to stay the same or worsen throughout the winter.

Summary

The best comparison for what this winter will bring is the last two years. Though, with the last two winters being warmer and drier than expected, if we do get the conditions presented in this out look, it may feel like this winter is abnormally cold and/or drier/wetter than normal.

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