Summer battles Fall: Hot, then cool, then warm, then stormy
A persistent ridge is trying to keep Summer in the Black Hills Region a little longer, breaking down later this week
- A warm, foggy morning on tap for most of us with temperatures feeling…. sticky. Alot of mid 60’s out there this morning along the foothills
- The sun is expected to come out sometime late morning, ushering in a true-form hot Summer’s day, until the front arrives
- If forecast guidance is to be believed, its going to be a scorcher for some of us today. I have no doubt we could reach some low 90s in Rapid City, with some mid 90s out towards the plains
- The temperatures don’t tell the whole story, given that humidity levels will be plummeting in Wyoming, but offering little relief in the way of heat.
- Drier air will allow temperatures to soar in portions of Johnson, Sheridan and Campbell county through the afternoon, could be the warmest day of the year for some folks out there
- The dew point map tells the real story, showing a clear dry-front pushing into the region around the 1 PM hour
- 70° dew points out towards the badlands, in contrast with dew points in the low 30’s towards Gillette and Wright, Wyoming.
- Given that this is mostly a dry front, models are having a hard time coming up with any thunderstorm activity with the passage early this afternoon, but I think we know better
- I’m going to leave the chance for isolated thunderstorms today going into the late afternoon, because I’m not going to be the one who snubs storm chances when dew points are cresting almost 70° with an associated front passage, no matter how small or weak it may appear.
- Ask folks who live in West Texas if dry-lines and dry fronts can spark thunderstorms on a hot and humid day, (the answer is yes).
- There is a chance that dry air could undercut our hot and humid day before things can really get going, but I’ll throw my chips in with a few boomers before all is said and done.
- Tuesday will usher in the truly cooler air, with temperatures in the 70s and plenty of sunshine.
- Summer fights back on Wednesday, rebounding nicely with temperatures in the 80s and more sunshine.
- Thursday evening will be our first chance of storm activity, leading to an overall unsettled later portion of the week
- This weekend interests me, given that the jet stream is progged to drag a robust system into our area going into Sunday.
- It’s worth watching, but it’s hard to say if surface ingredients will play nice with upper level dynamics at this stage.
- We’re losing sunlight, and, the associated heat that comes with it for thunderstorm development. We’ll watch it regardless.
- The weather story over the next couple days will be Hurricane Dorian, of course.
- Models are having an extremely tough time, given that there’s many intangibles guiding the intensity and track of Hurricane Dorian
- Football, for example, isn’t all about the on-field stats or final score. What about locker room presence? Does the Quarterback and coach get along? Which team works harder in the off season? All of these things aren’t measured but are critically important. Judging the track and intensity of a hurricane is no different. Whether or not Dorian actually hits Florida at this point will be determined by 10-20 miles. A razor thin edge.
- Models wont pick up on a large hurricane amplifying the high pressure system to the North, or how slow or fast a trough might be moving. Having that said, all eyes are watching Dorian, and we’re thinking of those recovering the the Bamahas this morning.
Enjoy the blazing heat and humidity today, odds are you’ll miss it come December and January. We’ll continue to watch for this weekend and what it might bring us weather wise, but so far we’re looking dry for Tuesday-Thursday. We’ll see what the rest of this Summer has in store for us…. -Brant