7:31 AM UPDATE: Risk for Strong Storms has increased for Monday afternoon & Evening in the Black Hills

The Storm Prediction center has upgraded our chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

7:31 AM UPDATE

  • The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area of expected strong thunderstorm activity for this Afternoon
  • Areas of Northeastern Wyoming including Sundance and Newcastle are now included
  • The Central and Southern Black Hills, including Custer, Hill City, Hot Springs and even portions of Rapid city are now included in this risk
  • This is not expected to be a widespread event but rather strong, isolated thunderstorms that could have locally torrential rainfall, isolated hail, gusty winds and dangerous lightning.
  • There’s no need to cancel plans, but making sure you have a way to access weather information and warnings will be key this afternoon and evening, don’t be caught in a Black Hills thunderstorm unprepared!
  • Just because you are outside the Yellow shaded area does NOT mean strong thunderstorms will avoid these areas. Sturgis, for example, is not in the yellow shaded area but could still experience an isolated strong thunderstorm this afternoon
  • Newscenter1 will be monitoring conditions throughout today and will update you with any new, pertinent and important information, thanks for checking in with us – Brant

5:30 AM Forecast

  • The possibility exists this morning for a few scattered thundershowers, but these should remain mostly isolated
  • As we head into the afternoon hours, energy will build across the Black Hills Region, and more thunderstorms could pop up around 2-4 PM

  • Temperatures will be relatively cool for this time of the year, with upper 70s to mid 80s around the foothills
  • Depending on cloud cover, some areas may even struggle to reach 80°!

  • Humidity will still be relatively high, however. It’s certainly no contest with East River or Iowa humidity, but it may feel a little uncomfortable this afternoon, particularly in the sunshine
  • Given the fact that many areas could have 60° dew points or higher, im keeping thunderstorms in the forecast for this afternoon, and strong ones at that

  • The good news is thunderstorm activity should be relatively isolated
  • Once we hit about 2 PM, conditions look favorable in the Central and Southern Hills for a potential isolated thunderstorm
  • The proximity to Custer is something worth watching, as I expect any thunderstorm that develops to be potentially strong, with isolated hail and gusty winds
  • With plenty of moisture in the region, we will need to monitor rainfall amounts with these thunderstorms, as I don’t expect them to move very far once they get going. They will turtle their way across the Hills this afternoon

  • A weak impulse is expected to cross the area later this evening, bringing a potential line of showers and thunderstorms
  • These are generally expected between the 6 PM and 10 PM hour, and should stay mostly towards the South.
  • This, however, can obviously shift a little North and could bring thunderstorms towards areas of Rapid City and the I-90 corridor

  • Tuesday’s forecast thus-far looks positive, if a little on the warm side
  • Thunderstorms are expected to be very local and very isolated. Whatever storm does pop up though will have a buffet of heat and energy to feed on, and could put on quite the show.

  • A marginal (1/5) risk for strong storms exists for most of the area today, with areas to the Southeast under a Slight (2/5) risk for strong storms due to better ingredients
  • Regardless of the SPC designation today, just remember that Custer received their flash flood event during a Marginal (1/5) risk day, its good to be vigilant whenever thunderstorms pop up, particularly in the Black Hills

Here’s the deal – anytime after 3 PM, thunderstorms are fair game in the Black Hills regardless of what computer models might say. As long as dew points hit 60°, there’s plenty of sunshine and somebody says the famous “it won’t storm today”, that’s almost a guarantee for a thunderstorm somewhere in the Hills. Just make sure to take a quick mental check at around 2-4 PM, keep an eye on the sky and check in with the forecast. If you want these forecast discussions and warnings sent directly to you as they occur, you can take a few seconds to submit an ALERT-ME request! Be safe out there! -Brant

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