Strong Storm Threat Upgraded: Rapid City, Black Hills Included

The chance for strong storms has been upgraded by the storm prediction center, here's the latest.

  • The Storm Prediction center has placed Large sections of Wyoming, the Black Hills and Rapid city under a 2/5 Risk for severe weather
  • This threat is specifically for a round of thunderstorms expected to move through the region starting in Wyoming sometime after 5 pm, and moving East
  • The Black Hills won’t see much strong storm activity until at least after 7 pm

  • The Threat for today is highlighted in yellow, under the “slight risk” (2/5) category
  • Plans do not necessarily need to be cancelled, and keeping tabs on the weather starting this evening should be more than sufficient
  • The NC1 Weather Weather App will automatically tell you if a weather warning has been issued for your area (shameless plug-in)

  • Here are the specific threats that are anticipated from these overnight storms
  • Hail up to quarter sized, in some cases a little bigger are possible
  • Localized gusty winds look possible up to 60 mph
  • I’m leaving the flood threat up just because our rivers and streams across the region are still running a little high, and the soil is fairly saturated in areas of the Hills, keep a close tabs on areas prone to flooding
  • Tornado threat is nearly zero (but never completely zero!)

  • Before we dive into the strong storm threat, I want to point out that most of the day today will be quite nice
  • Temperatures will reach the mid 70’s in many cases, and skies should stay relatively sunny save for a few pop ups this afternoon

  • Storms will kick off near the Big Horns around 3-5 pm this evening, and rumble their way across Northeastern Wyoming and Carter County, Montana
  • The first rumbles of thunder look likely around the 7-9 pm hour for the Black Hills and the  I-90 Corridor

  • Storm storm activity will continue into the overnight hours For Rapid City and specifically the I-90 corridor
  • Have a way to receive warnings overnight, particularly if you are susceptible to hail damage, gusty winds or flood threats at your location
  • Most storms will exit Wyoming by 1-3 AM, and 3-5 AM for the Black Hills Region and then 5-7 AM for areas East of the Black  Hills
  • So far, it looks like most of the storm activity will stay along or North of I-90, but keep your guard up if you live towards Pine Ridge, Hot Springs or Martin.

  • As you wake up Thursday morning, conditions will once again be rather sunny and comfortable
  • A few pop up showers are possible in the afternoon, but once again overnight thunderstorms look likely going into Friday morning
  • a Marginal (1/5) risk for strong storms has been issued by the storm prediction center for Thursday night into Friday

  • These Thursday night storms appear to be less intense, but much more widespread
  • Small hail, and perhaps a few areas of gusty winds will be possible with this line
  • The flood threat will be distinctly higher than any other threat with these storms, as widespread heavy rain does look possible at this point

  • Before all is said and done, between Wednesday and Thursday’s storm event we could see as much as 2″ of rain in some areas
  • Make sure you have a flood plan, and do NOT drive onto water covered roads. Contact either us, the National Weather Service or your local officials if you do encounter flash flooding or water covered roads.

Many of these storms will be occurring after sunset, so it’s important that you take warnings seriously and don’t try and venture out into bad weather if possible. Plenty of convective fuel and energy will be available for these thunderstorms, so they should provide a decent lightning show. Cloud to ground lightning will be likely, so don’t be standing outside if you can hear thunder! Be safe out there folks, we’ll be sure to update you all if there are any major changes to the forecast. -Brant

Current Conditions

 

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily

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