2:30 PM UPDATE: StormChat – Forecast Discussion – 5/12/2022

Here we go again; Another active day across the state. Meteorologist Erik Dean breaks down what you need to know, and what you need to keep safe in today's forecast discussion.

2:30 PM: Since the original post: A lot of things have shifted well into the state. Here are the latest updates to the forecast.
Day 1 Overview

You’ll notice the MDT (Moderate Risk or 4 out of 5) now covers ALL of I-29, and has expanded to include Mitchell, Sioux Falls, and Yankton.

Day 1 Wind

The wind threat has expanded a considerable amount as well, stretching all across I-29, and going into portions of Nebraska.
**Stay Weather Aware. If you live in the areas that could be affected today, or you have loved ones in that area, please keep checking the weather consistently throughout the day and make sure you or your loved ones have the following things ready to go:**

1) Make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio with batteries in case the power goes out.

2) Make sure you have multiple ways to receive watches/warnings.

3) Make sure you and your family go over your tornado safety plan. (Where are you going to take shelter? What are you going to cover up with?)

4) The NC1 Weather App is a wonderful tool to have on your phone to receive the latest information for your area. It’s free, and you can download it on the App & Play Store. Just search NC1 Weather.

5) Have a battery powered AM/FM Radio with you as well. Hopefully nothing bad happens, but should it happen, having the AM/FM Radio will allow you to listen to information as to where to go if you need assistance.

Again, hopefully, it’s not going to be that bad, but this is one storm that you don’t want to mess with.

————————————————ORIGINAL POST————————————————

Folks, we have a lot to talk about today, and I mean alot. So let’s dive right in as there are some changes from Wednesday. If you read Wednesday’s article, I mentioned that it wouldn’t surprise me if the risks for severe weather shifted a smidge to the east. Well…
Day 1 Overview

Not only did that happen, it shifted farther south,  and there’s a MOD (Moderate or 4 out of 5) risk for severe weather in that area. As I mentioned yesterday, having a moderate risk means we are getting into some extremely dangerous territory. Widespread, or long-lived thunderstorms are likely with the main threats being widespread wind damage, strong tornadoes, and hail near 2” in diameter.

Let’s Analyze: So we know from Wednesday’s analysis that temperatures are going to be well above the mid 70s with dew points in the mid 50s. For all intents and purposes, I will put the Futurecast products below this to show you.

Fc Temp Dma Sd

Fc Dew Point Dma Sd

And again, this is an East River event. Temperatures today, 90s. Dew Points will be in the mid-upper 60s.

Dma Sd Current Temperature
Take a look at the temperatures as of 11:32 AM; we are already in the 80s in Huron, Chamberlain, Sioux Falls, and Yankton. Let me say that again; 80s….at 11:32 AM…..Unbelievable.
Watchvswarning
To give credit to Chief Meteorologist Brant Beckman on his cake analogy he uses when he describes the difference between a watch & warning; The cake is slowly being mixed as we speak, right now, the oven is pre-heating with current temperatures (as of 9:41 AM MDT) already in the upper 70s, and ladies and gentlemen, that cake will be served later on today.

Fc 1
I am starting the clock at 2, and notice how the Black Hills region over towards Ekalaka, Northeastern Campbell County and Northern Crook County will start to see some thunderstorm activity.

Fc 2
By around 4:00 PM, just south of Pierre in Jones & Lyman, as well as Charles Mix County will see the thunderstorms start to flare up. From this point on, it just goes gangbusters.
Fc 3
There’s 6:00 PM and wow. From Mobridge, to Aberdeen, down to Brookings, Sioux Falls, Yankton, down into Nebraska, the storms will just start firing off.
Fc 4
Then by 10:00 PM, the heaviest part leaves the state, and then much like last night, the Black Hills Region will see another chance for some more much needed rain.

Day 1 Overview

Let’s go back to this: Wednesday, I said I agreed with the placement, and I still do. The MOD (Moderate or 4 out of 5) risk is definitely where it needs to be. The main threats today are damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes. (All 3 are hatched.)

Day 1 Wind
Wind: 
The hatched area stretches from Sisseton, to Aberdeen all the way down to Yankton. As we discussed in a previous post, the hatch marks mean that 74 MPH winds or greater are possible.
Day 1 Hail
Hail: the placing on this one is a little different than the wind one, the hatched area stretches from Mobridge to Aberdeen, down to Yankton. The hatch marks here mean that hail 2″ in diameter or larger will be the main contender.

Day 1 Tornado
Tornado: The bullseye is Aberdeen, Sisseton, down to Hide, Hand and Beadle County. The hatch marks here indicate that if you were to see a tornado, the chances of it being EF-2 or higher are greater.

**Stay Weather Aware. If you live in the areas that could be affected today, or you have loved ones in that area, please keep checking the weather consistently throughout the day and make sure you or your loved ones have the following things ready to go:**

1) Make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio with batteries in case the power goes out.

2) Make sure you have multiple ways to receive watches/warnings.

3) Make sure you and your family go over your tornado safety plan. (Where are you going to take shelter? What are you going to cover up with?)

4) The NC1 Weather App is a wonderful tool to have on your phone to receive the latest information for your area. It’s free, and you can download it on the App & Play Store. Just search NC1 Weather.

5) Have a battery powered AM/FM Radio with you as well. Hopefully nothing bad happens, but should it happen, having the AM/FM Radio will allow you to listen to information as to where to go if you need assistance.

Again, hopefully, it’s not going to be that bad, but this is one storm that you don’t want to mess with.

If you are reading this East River, just know that the NC1 Weather Team is thinking of you all today, and we thank you so much for trusting us to give you the most accurate forecast and to help keep you and your loved ones safe.

This article will be updated throughout the day.

-E.D.

Categories: ConnectCenter1-Weather, Local News, South Dakota News, Weather Daily