Stampede of Cold: Snow Showers Possible Next Week

Starting tonight, a dynamic and distinct pattern shift will take place, leading into a well below normal start to next week... and possibly some signs of Winter

  • Today will be one of the last days we’ll see temperatures this pleasant for quite some time, 60s and 70s across the region with even an 80° possible
  • Warm winds will fuel much of this temperature increase, with the Chinook heat factory of the Montana Rockies providing us with dry, warm conditions
  • There are concerns for possible fire danger in Northeastern Wyoming, as relative humidity values will be around the 10-15% range with gusty winds, keep aware for this afternoon and evening.

  • Thursday evening will quickly deteriorate as a potent cold front moves through the region – Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will sweep the Black Hills.
  • From this point forward, warm temperatures and sunny skies will be hard to come by – at least for the next 5-7 days

  • Make sure to tie down trampolines, loose trash cans and small dogs overnight as this could pick up quite a bit as it passes through
  • Current forecast guidance has the time frame from around 8-10 PM, but that could shift depending on how fast this front pushes through.

  • The good news for Friday and Buffalo Round-up is that showers will be more isolated (not completely gone) and winds will subside for at least a little bit
  • You’ll need at the very least a light jacket, and something to keep you dry – but overall a true Fall morning to get outside and enjoy the round-up!

  • Showers will continue to increase Friday evening going into Saturday, with a “warm front” bringing in widespread showers and breezy conditions
  • These will continue going all day Saturday going into Saturday evening. A good indication of our widespread shower chances is the forecast wind direction – Easterly Winds.
  • Temperatures are going to struggle mightily, as warm air loses the battle against advancing moisture and cooler air – temperatures in the 40s and 50s for the high

  • The west coast and the Montana/Wyoming Rockies are looking at the possibility of a record breaking September Snow event.
  • 50″+ of snow will be possible in some areas, with the higher elevations of Montana and Wyoming expected to receive the brunt of a true Winter storm.
  • If you have plans to travel West, you’re going to want to check that forecast.


  • It’s happened before this early and I’m sure it’ll happen again in the future. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will teeter right on the edge of the cold air mass that’s expected to bring record-breaking snow and cold to portions of the West.
  • The Black Hills will be right on a very, very fine line – a case where we could have snow showers in Northeastern Wyoming and straight Rain in the Black Hills and Rapid City, nothing is in stone yet. anything past 3 days is madness.
  • There is plenty of evidence, however, that suggest that in the overnight hours early next week, we could see rain mixing with snow even in the foothills and perhaps even lower elevations of the Black Hills. This includes the possibility of frost.
  • At the very most, it’ll be curious sight and not much more. The ground is too warm – we would need a good amount of snow to overcome our heated surface and cause actual travel impacts. The higher elevations may see a little more action, but once again its wayyy too early to tell what those impacts would look like, if any.
  • In short, we’re confident of WELL below normal temperatures and plenty of moisture.
  • Remember, it was one year ago today that Mount Rushmore received 6 inches of snow… it’s not out of the question.
  • The big impact here would be the possibility of frost for the lower elevations, we’ll keep an eye on it and try to pinpoint the most likely evening of the first frost event. At this point, Sunday night into Monday could see frost in the Rapid City area.

Mini-rant: Be super-super careful of amateur’s on facebook and social media posting ridiculous forecast models showing the worst-case scenerios for snowfall. There’s a reason I don’t post anything past three days on these blogs – they’re close to worthless. By getting shares and likes on their crazy forecasts, they get money – they don’t really care if the outcome is true or not. I personally know many amateur meteorologists who responsibly post and follow guidance from the NWS carefully, the vast majority just love weather and like to blog about it – its mainly a small group that cause the most trouble. Verify your sources, and make sure to check any forecast frequently as things change quickly, its just the nature of the business. For those that enjoy a few snowflakes, A little hype never hurt 🙂 – Be safe out there! -Brant

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Categories: Local News, Weather Daily