Snow likely for Easter Weekend: Watching for storm potential

Another shot of cold air is expected to push into the region this weekend, dropping temperatures almost 30° below normal, with some moderate accumulations possible.

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  • Another dry, sunny and breezy day is expected Tuesday, with temperatures reaching the 60s and maybe 70s in some portions of our area.

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  • With that in mind, a Red Flag Warning has been issued by that National Weather Service for counties along the Nebraska border, and the far Western edge of Custer County. Use caution.

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  • Temperatures will once again be on the warm side, but slightly cooler than yesterday.
  • Winds are expected to pick up once again as the sun brings winds closer to the surface later this morning and afternoon.

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  • By Tuesday evening, a cold front will push through the area from Montana and North Dakota, bringing a slight chance for some rain/snow showers… particularly in the Northern Hills.

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  • By Wednesday morning, winds will start to pick up out of the North, dropping temperatures and bringing isolated showers to the area.

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  • High’s will struggle to hit 40° in some cases, and with a chilly northerly wind it’ll feel colder than that most of the day.

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  • We bounce back a little bit by Thursday, with temperatures creeping back into the 50s and things finally starting to calm down.

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  • We are keeping our eyes on another potential snow-producing system for Easter weekend, and the timeline is starting to have some shape to it.
  • Most of Friday is expected to stay dry, with partly cloudy skies giving way to mostly cloudy conditions with our next potential system creeping in by late Friday evening.
  • So far, it looks like things will start out as rain Late Friday and transition to snow by early Saturday morning.

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  • By 9 AM Saturday, a mix of rain and snow has developed with mostly Snow North of I-90 and rain towards the South.
  • We’ll see if this timeline holds together over the next couple of days… colder air could be late to the party, or show up early. This will determine much of our forecast.

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  • By Saturday evening, a full transition to snow is likely… with most of the area seeing at least something out of this system.

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  • Early Sunday morning could still see snow across portions of our area – the exit timeframe for this system is still a little shaky, something we’ll have to monitor.

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  • By Sunday afternoon things look like they’ll start breaking up, with most of the action pushing East as cold, dry air filters in.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

I’m seeing some similarities to last week’s system with this forecast… such as the timing and the plentiful amount of moisture. This is a another Colorado low, sucking down cold air from the Northwest and throwing moisture behind itself like we would throw a bucket of water over our head. How slow it pulls down this cold air, and the track of the Low will have big effects on the forecast. So far, just assume that a mix of rain/snow is likely sometime between Friday and Sunday… with possible breezy conditions. Confidence is high that we’ll see a brisk cool down by Sunday, with temperatures in the teens for the overnight hours.

Like with all these systems, we’ll keep an eye on it. I’m not hitting the “winter storm” button just yet, still too much that could de-rail the ingredients… and we’ll need some pretty darn good placement of this Low pressure system to get the mentioned results. This is not a slam dunk like last week’s forecast… where we were right in the middle of the projected path – we are just a little far North of the low pressure system so far to be considered “in the direct path”.

I’ll have a few more blogs on this through the week – thanks for checking in! Wash your hands! – Brant

 

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily