Several Rounds of Thunderstorms Forecasted: Flash Flood Watch Posted in Response

Torrential rainfall may be associated with some of these thunderstorms over the next several days

11:25 AM UPDATE

  • A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for portions of our viewing area, including NE Wyoming, the Northern Black Hills and NW South Dakota
  • This is due to the forecasted thunderstorms over the next several days, some of which could have torrential rainfall
  • Soil Moisture across the area is saturated due to recent above normal rainfall.
  • Flash flooding may occur given these situations
  • The first line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to come through as early as this afternoon

8:00 AM UPDATE

  • Most of today will be sunny and warm, with temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s across the region
  • Clouds will begin to build sometime int he afternoon, followed by the typical afternoon pop-up thunderstorms in the higher elevations

  • Rapid City and the Black Hills Region is under a Slight (2/5) Risk for strong to severe storms for this late afternoon and evening
  • Starting at 3pm, thunderstorm activity is slated to increase in Wyoming and travel East, picking up energy and strength going into the evening hours

 

  • Given the threat level, no plans necessarily need to be cancelled and checking the weather a couple times throughout the afternoon and evening should be more than sufficient
  • However, If outdoor activities are planned, make sure to have a way to receive warnings so that appropriate action can be taken should a warning be issued for your area, these are not storms you want to be caught outside in

  • A distinct feature of these storms this evening will be torrential rainfall, as we are generally accustom to hail and wind threat.
  • Moisture levels in the atmosphere will be 150%-200% their normal levels, so flood prone areas should be monitored closely, along with road conditions

  • As we’re cruising to lunch, most areas will still be dry and warm with plenty of sunshine
  • There will be hints of activity in the Higher elevations of the Black Hills and Big Horns, even a few pop up showers could be possible by then
  • Any activity should start in Wyoming and push East

  • By 3 PM the atmosphere is starting to give in to the superior ingredients and dynamics, storms will overcome any cap and begin firing off in Wyoming mostly
  • A Few storms could fire off in the Black Hills and even the South Dakota plains, but will be isolated at best… to start

  • By 6 pm it looks as though storms move North and South of the Black Hills but not through them. It’s entirely possible Rapid City doesn’t see a drop of rain until the overnight hours
  • Areas like, Spearfish, Hot Springs and Pine Ridge will however have the opportunity to encounter robust thunderstorm activity as early as rush hour

  • By 10 pm, thunderstorms will still be active in the area and Rapid City could finally see a quick line of potentially strong storms roll through
  • From experience, it looks as though this will be a typical line of brief gusty winds, lightning, heavy rain and small hail just as we’re heading to bed

  • The process repeats itself Wednesday, with a generally dry and partly sunny morning giving way to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening hours

  • Rainfall estimations have varied greatly, but localized areas of an inch to possibly two inches of rain aren’t out of the question over the next 2 days
  • This due to the torrential rainfall that could be associated with our expected thunderstorm activity

  • Unfortunately, the Fourth of July looks to be one of the stormier days this week, with cooler temperatures and robust storm activity
  • By this point, flash flooding could become a distinct issue as areas may have received copious amounts of rainfall over the last couple of days

  • Perhaps a break this weekend from the stormy weather will be possible, but confidence isn’t high enough to make that call yet
  • Dynamics and ingredients will, at the very least, be in the neighborhood. If you are making plans for the weekend, air on the side of stormy weather for safe practice

The timeline has become a little bit more clear as the individual systems become more visible to forecast guidance. The big thing here is to try your best to hold off storm fatigue. We could likely have multiple days in a row here where a slight risk for strong storms will be possible. Although these storms may miss you 3/4 days, its the 1 day that could cause trouble if you aren’t properly prepared. I know you all will be safe out there, Happy Tuesday! Be sure to check in throughout the day for weather updates

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Categories: Local News, Weather Daily