Slight (2/5) Risk for Strong Storms for the Black Hills Region Friday

There's a good chance this afternoon that we'll see strong thunderstorms, particularly East of the Black Hills

  • A busy forecast on tap today, so I apologize in advance for the long winded nature of the details, but they’re important!
  • Temperatures will hover between the 60s and the 70s, with breezy conditions as fronts continue to battle for control of the region.
  • There have already been isolated thunderstorms this morning, with a few downpours and cloud to ground lightning. The atmosphere is primed for action.

  • We are under a Slight (2/5) risk for strong to severe storms, particularly after 3 pm and most occurring in the Black Hills and Eastward
  • Northeast Wyoming has recently been included in the slight risk category, mostly for gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning looking likely

  • Timing this out, 11 AM looks to have continued isolated showers and thunderstorms, with cloud to ground lightning being a part of those storms and gusty winds
  • Given ground conditions, we need to be on the lookout for wildfires due to the breezy, relatively dry conditions and the cloud to ground lightning.
  • Although there is rain associated and some is making it to the ground, lightning strikes can burn well after showers have passed, be sure to be on the lookout today if you happen to be in the hills this afternoon.

  • As we approach 4, 5 and 6 pm, a line of thunderstorms will begin to develop West of the Black Hills and push their way East
  • Although upper level winds are southerly, the progress of these storms will generally be Eastward.

  • These storms will likely continued as a line as they move out into the South Dakota Plains.
  • Although the line may be thin, it will pack quite the punch. Winds up to 75+ Mph will be possible, if not higher.
  • We had a 74 mph wind gust in Edgemont early this morning with only a small cluster of storms, so we already have evidence of the atmospheres capability today.

  • As we approach Saturday morning, Showers will continue to dot the area as Northwesterly Winds begin to pick up
  • Snow showers in the Big Horns look likely! Temperatures will be cooler with 50s and 60s likely for the region.

  • The Northwesterly Winds on Saturday will be bringing in dry conditions for Sunday and beyond.
  • Temperatures will recover nicely, 60s and 70s likely for the region going into Monday and the first day of Fall

  • I am watching the long range with interest, but also skepticism.
  • Long range guidance is still fickle at best, especially during this transitional period of time, but there some big hints out there.
  • Late next week could feature a large trough, the largest yet of this late summer/early fall plunging into the West coast.
  • It’s hard to reason that this won’t shift our pattern significantly going into late next week, on the cooler side.

  • Long range puts us right in the battle zone between the warmer and cooler air masses, which means unsettled weather for our region at the very least.
  • If we want to continue our dry conditions, we need to be on the warmer side of the fence going into early October.
  • This long range will undoubtedly shift over the weekend, and we’ll see with more clarity what might be coming our way late next week, but so far its fairly convincing that cold air… and unsettled weather is not far off.

Be sure to check the weather as we approach the afternoon, I’ll be posting an update later this morning with the latest information regarding our threat for severe weather, and whether or not we’re still on track. Thanks for trusting us with your forecast, we’ll be sure to keep you updated. -Brant

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