Severe Weather Expected Today: Enhanced risk for areas North of the Black Hills

Although most of us could see at least some strong storms, NW South Dakota and NE Wyoming could receive the larger impacts


  • The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk (3/5) of severe weather for portions of our area this afternoon into this evening
  • This mainly includes areas of Northeastern Wyoming, Northwestern South Dakota, Southeastern Montana and large portions of North Dakota
  • Rapid City and the Black Hills as a whole has a marginal risk (1/5) for strong storms this evening

  • For people living in the area of enhanced risk, shifting travel plans through the region or considering indoor activities for the evening is a reasonable response
  • Have a way to receive weather information wherever you may find yourself this evening

  • Up to golf ball sized hail and 70 mph winds are possible with these storms
  • Flood threat will mainly include areas with saturated soil and regions still recovering from previous flooding
  • Tornado threat is minimal, but not zero

  • The timeline for these strong storms will be from around 3 pm to midnight across our region
  • The first part of the day will see relatively little activity, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching well into the 80’s for some areas if not 90’s

  • As the 3-5 pm time frame approaches, storms will kick off in the Black Hills and the Big Horns in Wyoming
  • These storms will travel East, gaining strength particularly in NE Wyoming and areas of Montana

  • During the 5-7 pm time frame, storms will be moving through areas of Montana, NE Wyoming and NW South Dakota
  • It’s at this time where damaging winds and large hail look likely

  • From 7 pm onward, storms will begin to form a line, racing Eastward across large portions of North Dakota and portions of NW South Dakota
  • Areas of the Black Hills and the plains East of the hills could still receive strong storms, folks in those regions should be vigilant as well.

  • Towards Saturday morning storm activity will weaken in our region but scattered showers will persist
  • With the passage of the cold front, temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60’s in place like Rapid City
  • Cooler temperatures will persist into early next week, with isolated chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

This is our first enhanced risk of severe weather of the season, and likely not the last. Have a way to receive warnings, particularly if you live in the enhanced region of severe weather. The NC1 Weather app is a great way to receive up-to-date information and regional radar through a mobile device. If you have any pictures of hail or damage, send it to our facebook page! We’ll forward reports to the national weather service so we can warn our neighbors ahead of the storm of what’s coming.

Be safe out there folks -Brant

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