Rumbling Towards Summer: Storm chances continue through next week

Thunderstorms look likely today and Wednesday evening, with cooler temperatures for the weekend. Long range hints at something a little different next week.

  • Temperatures will once again struggle to reach  the 70’s in Rapid City, with mostly sunny skies turning partly cloudy as the morning continues
  • With so little heat available to fuel thunderstorms, activity will be limited to isolated strong spots here and there as far as Tuesday is concerned

  • As you can see, thunderstorms could get an early start this morning in the Black Hills, with much of the great plains staying dry for the first part of the day
  • The Eastern foothills will likely start seeing some of these thunderstorms after the 12 PM hour, then rumbling out into the plains towards the afternoon
  • Areas of Wyoming will see mostly isolated Thunderstorm Activity for the first part of the day

  • Models are starting to hint at a distinct line of thunderstorms rumbling through around 9 PM tonight through Midnight
  • These storms will start off in Montana and cruise southeast towards the Black Hills, moving through areas North of the Black Hills including places like Sundance, WY and Belle Fourche
  • A few of those could be on the stronger side, but not widespread.
  • Its debatable whether or not Rapid City will see these storms, as it will be a difficult journey for organized storms to make it over the Black Hills. Could still see a good lightning show.

  • Wednesday clears out quite nicely, temperatures could reach the mid 70’s with plenty of sunshine to start the day, 60’s for the hills
  • A Few pesky afternoon showers could pop up in the Eastern Foothills, but nothing widespread is expected for the early afternoon
  • Wyoming will see thunderstorms pop up in the afternoon, kicking off towards the Bighorns and racing Eastward as we approach tonight

  • Wednesday evening presents a different story, as a cold front moves through the region around the 6-9 PM hour
  • Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, with gusty winds and small to medium sized hail possible
  • These storms will rumble through the night, with Thursday looking to be drier and a little cooler

  • The first day of summer, Friday, will be marked by fairly cool temperatures and a chance for some afternoon showers
  • Saturday and Sunday will also remain on the cooler side, but with warmer air beginning to move in
  • The Hills will tap into this encroaching warmer air, with chances for some afternoon thunderstorms

  • The 6-10 day forecast still has us slightly below normal, but the boundary is beginning to shift Northwest, and soon warmer temperatures will begin to move into our region starting next week
  • With the rise in temperatures, will come more fuel for thunderstorm activity. We’ve been fairly quiet this storm season with marginally cool temperatures so far

  • Precipitation is predicted to be slightly above normal as well continuing into next week
  • Strong Storms could be possible as this transition between cooler and warmer weather moves through our region

Although showers and thunderstorms look likely this week going into next week, activity will be limited by the sheer lack of thermodynamics, there just isn’t enough heat to go around! Once we get past this weekend though, warmer air will become available for thunderstorm development. Our chances for storm will not necessarily increase, but any storms we do receive could have a little bit more of a kick to them. Something we’ll be watching closely. For now, we’ll be witness to a few good lightning shows tonight and tomorrow night if all pans out. Be safe out there!

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Categories: Local News, Weather Daily

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