Right on Schedule: Midnight thunderstorms return Thursday evening

The Midnight Thunderstorm Train isn't heading just anywhere, it's heading for the Black Hills. Let's break it down

  • The first thing you notice about Thursday’s forecast is that the natural order of things is quite out of balance.
  • Morning thunderstorms, followed by a dry afternoon? That’s what happens when upper level dynamics are running the show.
  • Temperatures will struggle to reach 80 once again, with dew points that will be just shy of 60° in most cases.

  • There is a Slight (2/5) Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms both this morning and then again overnight
  • Large Hail, Gusty Winds, Flash Flooding and Dangerous lightning will all be features of these thunderstorms.
  • Most of this activity is slated for areas South of I-90 until you move towards the central portion of the state

  • Thunderstorms are no longer completely dependent on the sun to initiate, and so strong storms could move through the region as early as this morning
  • Most will move through by this afternoon, leaving us with a rather dry and sunny late afternoon and early evening

  • We’ll need to keep an eye on rain amounts going into the next couple of days.
  • Last night alone we received almost 2″+ of rain in several areas, If we receive more torrential rainfall the water will have nowhere to go.
  • We will need to monitor threats for flash flooding very closely

  • Thunderstorms overnight could linger into Friday morning, before more strong storms could form Friday afternoon and evening
  • Moral of the story is we need to keep our head on a swivel until at least Saturday, when the trough responsible for all of this action will finally push through the region
  • Conditions look much better going into Sunday and next week, with temperatures in the mid 80s and plenty of sunshine

I know it’s a lot, I know there’s lots of thunderstorms and its easy to blow off the forecast because we seem to have a risk for strong thunderstorms every day. I post these forecasts for communities like Gillette, WY yesterday, that received Tennis Ball sized hail, or Hill City that received Golf ball sized hail. These isolated events can be devastating, but much less so if we’re prepared for the possibility. I challenge you to stay vigilant and to be weather aware for the next couple days, because once we get to next week we can really start to leave the cars outside overnight without much concern. We’ll Keep you updated throughout the day today! Be safe out there! – Brant

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