Riding the (Jet Stream) Wave: Snow and Warm days side by side this week
Multiple systems will bring chances for snow, warm air, then snow again, then warm air, and then snow again. Let's break down the nonsense.
- Temperatures will start out noticeably cooler than yesterday, with light snow and slick roads in small portions of the northern Hills – most of us won’t have issues getting around today.
- Most of the action will be clearing out by this afternoon, with a few areas getting some light snow bands this afternoon.
- Monday night should be relatively dry with a few clouds moving through.
- A small disturbance will cross the Northern portion of our region Tuesday morning – bringing small accumulations to portions of Harding, Butte, and Perkins County.
- Carter County, Montana and Ziebach County could also see a few areas of accumulation by the noon hour.
- Temperatures will rebound nicely Tuesday, with high 40s and even a few low 50s across the region.
- Areas to the North may be a little cooler due to the snow covered surfaces, but could melt quickly if the sun comes out – leading to a fairly nice recovery in the 40s.
- Enter Stage Left: another clipper system Wednesday morning – temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 20s, with a few teens for high temps in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
- Wednesday will feature light snow for a large portion of the region, but although widespread most will receive light to maybe light/moderate accumulations at best.
- So far the concentration seems to be North of I-90 for accumulations of 2″-4″, everywhere else seeing 0″-2″ thus far.
- I’m not placing my bets just yet though, I’d like to wait until afternoon resolutions come through before throwing specific numbers for our region.
- Regardless, accumulations are expected to be on the lighter side with small travel impacts for the most part.
- The good news – winds aren’t expected to be all that crazy even with all of these system moving through out region.
- Thursday-Saturday this week is looking pretty darn good – back to average temperatures with dry conditions.
- Sunday is a system we’ll be watching going into next week.
The Jet stream is sitting right over us – which makes me sound like a broken record. The consequences are that, as a forecaster temperatures are subject to wild swings with very little notice in short range forecast guidance models. Somebody could sneeze and change the weather for half the region – the jet stream merely wobbling can eject a wave that brings quick bursts of precipitation. So far, I’ll hold the the forecast I’ve posted – with high confidence that Friday is by far our best day of the week. Wednesday looks to have low impacts snow-wise, and Sunday is too volatile at this point to make any whims about what those impacts could look like. Looks to be cold for the first part of next week at the very least. Long range does show drier weather for the latter half of this month… which i’m inclined to agree with given the current pattern of the jet stream. We’ll keep checking though – be safe out there! -Brant