10:15 AM UPDATE: Cloud Cover limits potential for evening severe weather

A small batch of energy has produced cloud cover across our region, helping cut off the heat of the sun and a possible ingredient for potential storms later

10:15 AM UPDATE——————————

GOES-16 Satellite of the Black Hills Region, 10:15 AM

  • Cloud cover across the region provides good news regarding our severe potential this afternoon and evening
  • Without abundant sunshine, the level of heat available to thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be limited. This could lessen their overall severity and even inhibit development
  • Storms are still likely, and conditions should be monitored throughout the day today as things can quickly change.
  • This will also push the timeline of thunderstorm activity further into the evening, to possibly sometime overnight.
  •  We’ll be sure yo bring you updates throughout the morning and afternoon as the forecast develops

7:30 AM

  • Storms will generally wait until this afternoon and evening to ramp up, so the first part of the day will be warm and humid
  • Temperatures will climb to the 80s and 90s out towards the great plains, while the hills will see 70s and generally 80s

  • Although the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has us for a Slight (2/5) risk rating for strong storms, I have concern that some areas could see potent severe weather this evening
  • I’ve included the designation for a few spin up tornadoes, as the environment is favorable for bowing structures – A potent line of thunderstorms that feature straight line winds and spin ups along the flanking lines. (Think 4th of July Thunderstorms)

  • Even with those conditions being so, i don’t feel as though cancelling plans is necessary, just make sure that any plans that you do make this evening consider the possibility of strong to severe weather, generally after 5 PM

  • Here is a rough breakdown of expected impacts, I’ve kept the flood threat high specifically for Rapid City and the I-90 corridot due to the excessive amount of rainfall this area has received recently
  • I’ve also slightly bumped up our tornado threat, given the possibility of spin ups. Do NOT focus on the tornado threat as our main focus. straight line winds, dangerous lightning, large hail and flash flooding will by far be the main impacts

  • First part of today will be calm, with some shower activity across Wyoming and Northern portions of our area
  • A Few isolated thunderstorms could pop up after lunch in the Black Hills, eventually making their way down the Eastern foothills as the afternoon wears on

  • Forecast Guidance indicates a distinct line moving through sometime between 6 PM and midnight tonight, this is our main concern
  • There can be isolated supercells that develop ahead of this line in the Great Plains and elsewhere, so don’t let your guard down just because you live away from the Hills

  • By midnight, most activity is pushing East and will more than likely fizzle out into Central SD
  • Partly Cloudy skies filter in through Wyoming overnight

  • Much like today, Tuesday will start out quiet, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s
  • Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once again, Wyoming should see organized storm activity first

  • After 6 PM going into the midnight hour, another distinct line of thunderstorms are expected to move through the region, bringing some of the same impacts we expect for Monday evening
  • These storms could last into the 2,3 and 4 AM hour into Wednesday morning

  • the good news is that by the end of the week, storm activity will subside (but not entirely go away)
  • High pressure once again brings warm, drier conditions Thursday and Friday.
  • A possibility of further thunderstorm activity could arise this weekend going into next week

I’m not someone who generally hypes strong storm events. We’re used to Slight (2/5) risks for strong storms, its nothing we haven’t already seen this summer. I am concerned with the dynamics and ingredients at play this evening however, tonight and Tuesday night could be some of the more potent events that come through the Black Hills. I hope I’m wrong, but we should prepare for the bad, and hope for the good. Have a way to receive warnings this evening, and be sure to stick with us for the latest updates. Be safe out there everyone, and THANK you for everyone that sent in storm reports and pictures on Sunday. Keep up the good work, we’ll need your help over the next couple days! -Brant

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