Out of the Storm, into the Fire: Red Flag Warning for Wyoming

It'll be a tale of two cities, as Areas East of the Black Hills deal with heat and humidity, and areas West experience dry, windy conditions

  • A Slight Haze as you look East from Rapid City, being slowly brought in by Easterly winds later today
  • We’ll finally see temperatures, and sunshine that is more fitting of August in the Black Hills with upper 80s and even a few 90s

  • A different story entirely for our neighbors in Wyoming, who will be dealing with Dry and windy conditions today
  • A Red Flag Warning has been issued by the national weather service in response for the Northeastern Wyoming Plains

  • Look no further than our dew point map to figure out the contrast. Rapid city could see dew points in the mid 60s, while Gillette struggles with very little moisture at dew points in the 30s
  • An interesting note, given our distinct boundary between moisture rich and dry air near the Eastern foothills, I’m leaving the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast
  • “Drylines” can act like a boundary, forcing convection on hot humid days like today. Any storm that does pop up will have the heat and energy to pack quite the punch, so IF one does go up it’ll be quite the boomer.

  • Once again, temperatures are looking much more average for this time of year.
  • Even the upper elevations could see temperatures in the upper 80s, even 90° in places like Custer
  • Difference being that much lower relative humidity will make the heat feel much less oppressive in the higher elevations and West towards Wyoming

  • I’m a big believer in this new dry pattern we’ve found ourselves in. Saturday’s Cold front really rattled the cage and sent our stagnate stormy pattern packing.
  • That’s not to say we aren’t going to see thunderstorms every now and then, but the train of 7-10 days of thunderstorm activity will be much harder to come by
  • Having that said, Tuesday night stretching into Thursday evening looks fairly active, with Easterly to Southeasterly surface winds bringing moisture and additional chance for showers and thunderstorms
  • Friday and the weekend, so far, looks fairly dry. The long range confirms this on several platforms and I happen to side with the drier models given our favorable pattern shift

Fire season will be right around the corner if drier weather starts to take root over the next week or two, it won’t take much. Make sure you are shifting your mindset, as we have been fairly lucky with our wet pattern suppressing fire season this summer and fire safety has been kept on the back burner in our minds. Time to throw that mindset on the main grill. Enjoy our warm sunny days though! Forecast will be fun to follow as we transition to late August/Early September. Be safe out there! -Brant

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