Not Enough Fuel: Cooler temperatures will muffle stormy week

Although storms are still expected for much of the next 7 days, cooler than normal temperatures will cap the potential for stronger storms

  • Out of the next 7 days, today and next Tuesday look to be the stormiest of the bunch
  • Showers and thunderstorms could kick off as soon as 10 am in the Black Hills, where they will then lumber their way out into the plains
  • Some could be on the stronger side, but those events should be on the isolated side and shouldn’t warrant too much concern

  • Because temperatures are struggling to even top 80° for the foreseeable future, its going to be difficult to see these thunderstorms amount to much more than some decent rumblers and perhaps some small hail
  • Wyoming will be getting in on the action too, with perhaps not as much fanfare as the SD side of the state line

  • A fresh line of showers and thunderstorms look likely towards the evening hours, so a decent light show could be on tap this evening
  • This will be the best chance for areas of the Great plains, including Carter County, Montana and areas North of the Black Hills to receive precipitation, if any

  • Saturday is starting to look really decent, with dwindling chances for isolated thunderstorms with each passing forecast guidance model run, temperatures creeping into the 70’s with a few 80° spots in the plains.
  • Breezy conditions will be present though, so make sure to hang on to your back deck items and umbrellas! 15-25 mph winds from the Northwest

  • Rain chances increase once again for Sunday, but without warmer temperatures as fuel its hard to put thunderstorms in the forecast
  • At best, a few rumbles of thunder associated with general showers look likely.
  • This will be the story as we head into Monday as well, where temperatures will struggle to break the mid 60’s in places like Rapid City

  • Areas East of the Black Hills very well may escape most precipitation through Sunday morning
  • The Black Hills themselves could get some decent amounts, with the Lead/Deadwood area close to the inch mark
  • Once again, although thunderstorms may not be strong, general rain showers are still in the forecast

  • Going into the Long range forecast, there is a very good chance temperatures will be below normal going into late next week and into the weekend
  • Highs will struggle to reach 70° in some cases, with 50’s possible for high temperatures in areas of the Black Hill

  • The likelihood of cooler temperatures is accompanied by an above normal rain pattern
  • Central Wyoming looks to be the bullseye, with the Black Hills and surrounding area still expected to receive above normal amounts through the later portions of next week

Records were broken this last May for cold temperatures and snow amounts, June seems to be following the same pattern of cold weather (but less snow). Severe weather season seems to be rolling through quietly, and we’d like to keep it that way. As long as temperatures stay on the cooler side, thunderstorms won’t have the fuel to cause too many problems. There are hints that late June could feature warmer temperatures, and with it will come the chance for thunderstorms once again. Enjoy father’s day weekend, and stay safe out there!

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