More Strong Storms Possible: Hail threat once again for tonight

A second straight day of evening thunderstorms looks likely, and the area in question has expanded to include large portions of our area

  • A few showers are crossing the region this morning, but should generally dissipate as we get into the late morning and lunch hour
  • Abundant sunshine, with temperatures reaching the low 80s by the afternoon, with only a slight chance of a pop up thunderstorm

  • This evening will once again feature the possibility for some isolated strong to severe storms
  • Most of us won’t see severe storms, but there could be a few stronger spots that develop, particularly after the 6 pm hour

  • Hail will be the main threat, with up to golf ball sized hail or even larger possible.
  • The area shaded in black dashes has the highest probability of exceeding these parameters and producing large hail

  • For the most part, today will be sunny and warm
  • Only a brief chance of a pop-up thunderstorm exists in the Black Hills and Wyoming for the afternoon
  • Should a storm pop up however, it will need to be monitored as there is plenty of fuel in the atmosphere, even at this early hour

  • Forecast Guidance is having a really hard time placing storms in the Black Hills this evening
  • A “Cap” will be sealing the atmosphere like a shaken up soda bottle. Forecast Guidance thinks the cap wont come off. I disagree, and think storms will eventually fire off and rumble through the hills tonight

  • Storm activity looks likely to continue, even after the midnight hour, particularly in areas North of the Hills
  • Areas of Harding and Perkins County could have several rounds of thunderstorms overnight.

  • By Thursday the temperature will be higher into the 80s and the cap will be stronger
  • Any good chance of a thunderstorm will be close to the North Dakota border and Montana

Tornado Warned Storm Over Hulett, Wyoming, Looking from Belle Fourche Tuesday evening – Thanks Lars!

  • As we saw yesterday, there is never a zero chance of a tornado when it comes to severe weather, Spin ups can be caused by many individual factors that are extremely difficult to forecast
  • Much like yesterday evening, there is a low chance for tornadoes, but a high chance for medium sized hail and gusty winds with these thunderstorms
  • It pays to be prepared, even with the isolated nature of these thunderstorms. Have a plan, and make sure to have a way to receive warnings tonight, particularly if you are in a location that is susceptible to large hail and damaging winds

Be safe out there folks!

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