Low on Fuel: Dry front brings relief for Thursday, Friday

A cold front will bring lower humidity, and slightly cooler temperatures for today and Friday, suppressing storm activity as well.

  • As a dry front passes through our area, it’ll bring slightly cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and lower humidity.
  • Northerly winds could gust up to 35 mph in Rapid City, a little higher in areas  North of the Black Hills
  • With dew points dropping however, the fuel for any storm activity will be in low supply, a welcome relief for some

  • Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across the area, with the Black Hills by far being the most comfortable
  • Areas to the Southeast could still see some warmer temperatures, despite what the forecast guidance may suggest. Be prepared for high 80s and even 90s in Jackson and Bennett County
  • It all depends on how far South the Cold front makes it today.

  • This is the real story of this cold front, because although we mostly associate fronts with cooler and warmer temperatures, this one features much drier air.
  • 60° is a good milestone for thunderstorm activity, and we hardly reach 50° dew points across the Black Hills region
  • Once again, areas in Martin and Kadoka may need to wait before seeing these drier conditions, it all depends on if the dry front stalls over the Badlands or continues pushing forward. Here’s hoping.

  • Wherever this front does eventually stall out this afternoon will be a kickoff point for potential isolated storms
  • We’re expecting it to at least make it past the Black Hills, and push further out Southeast
  • Conditions in front will be humid, and hotter. Conditions behind will be drier, and cooler

  • These conditions look to continue tomorrow, albeit a little warmer across the area
  • I’ve been convinced enough by the lower humidity values to drop even isolated storms in the forecast
  • The truth is, even if a pop up does manage to form in the Black Hills, there isn’t enough forecasted moisture to really make a difference. Storm threat will be at a minimum and sunshine with be plenty

  • Saturday, however, sees the return of dew points, fuel for thunderstorms and the potential for stronger storms as well
  • Although this shows a current Marginal (1/5) risk for strong storms for Saturday, I believe this will be upgraded to at least Slight (2/5) for Saturday before all is said and done
  • Any storm activity is expected in the late afternoon and evening, so far

  • Overall the weekend will be nice though, with cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday
  • Sunday particularly will be nice, although a stray thunderstorm does seem possible given the higher humidity values expected
  • Conditions will continue going into next week, where isolated thunderstorms in the Black Hills will be possible with moderate humidity values and 80s for temperatures

Let’s enjoy the next couple of days! Dew points will be low for the next 48 hours, so its a great time to get outdoor work done or exercise outside. You’ll be able to feel  the difference. Storm chances do return Saturday, but we’ll keep an eye on it. Be safe out there! -Brant

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily