Kentucky Derby weekend is here

Meteorologist Erik Dean discusses the Kentucky Derby forecast.

The Kentucky Derby, an event full of many traditions; beginning with the events leading to the fastest two minutes in sports; Thunder over Louisville, the Bed Races, the Great Steamboat Races, the Balloon Glow, the Balloon Races, the Kentucky Oaks (which is actually Friday) and then Saturday, the big day, the mint julips, the hats, the infield, and the annual singing of “My Old Kentucky Home.” Being from that area, I’ve had the privilege of attending the Kentucky Derby before. The infield is an experience I will never forget.

One of the traditions that one of my best friends and I started in High School was betting on the horses, winner enjoys dinner, and the loser buys. I think we owe each other about 5 steak dinners a piece. That’s a tradition that carries on to this day.

Here is a list of the horses that are running this year as well as the odds as of typing this;

1. Mo Donegal (10-1)     2. Happy Jack (30-1)     3. Epicenter (7-2)     4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1)     5. Smile Happy (20-1)     6. Messier (8-1)     7. Crown Pride (20-1)

8. Charge It (20-1)     9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1)     10. Zandon (3-1)     11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)     12. Taiba (12-1)     13. Simplification (20-1)     14. Barber Road (30-1)

15. White Abarrio (10-1)     16. Cyberknife (20-1)     17. Classic Causeway (30-1)     18. Tawny Port (30-1)     19. Zozos (20-1)     20. Ethereal Road (Scratched)

21. Rich Strike (30-1)


Wxchat Slate
Obviously when betting on the horses, one thing you want to look at is the weather. How will the track conditions be at 4:57 PM MDT? Which horses perform better in the rain as opposed to no rain?

Let’s dive into the forecast.

Fc 1

This is the Futurecast for that area, and by the time the Oaks kicks off this afternoon at 3:51 PM, stray showers will be entering the area. Simply put the track is wet tonight. Does it get out of here in time for Saturday?

Fc 2

Well, here we go; Saturday afternoon, I am not ruling out a stray shower or two.  That will be more likely in the early morning hours, but overall the clouds will start to decrease just in time for Derby. I-65 seems to be the cutoff line at that time. Maybe they can be out of there completely over Churchill Down just in time.

I personally don’t think they’ll have a muddy track, but maybe a little wet or damp.

Here’s something interesting, 17 of the 20 horses have never raced on a sloppy, muddy, or a wet track. Epicenter won on a wet track, in Churchill Downs in November. Barber Road had the best finish on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. Pioneer of Medina won a race at 7-1, then he won the Superfecta at 34-1, and in the Louisiana Derby, he came in 3rd at 16-1.

My pick: Pioneer of Medina.

Who is your derby pick? Message me at, or send me a message on Twitter or Facebook

Categories: ConnectCenter1-Weather, Local News, Weather Daily