Thursday severe weather threat upgraded for Rapid City & The Black Hills

Confidence grows that large hail and damaging winds will be likely for the Black Hills region Thursday afternoon and evening.


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  • The Severe weather threat for Thursday afternoon and evening has been upgraded to Enhanced (3/5) by the storm prediction center due to the increased confidence in large hail and damaging winds.
  • Thunderstorms are expected to fire off along the high terrain of Northeastern Wyoming and Montana sometime after 2 PM, before pushing Southeast into South Dakota through the evening.
  • Recent data suggests that long-track supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail will be possible, with a much lower chance for an isolated tornado as well.
  • These storms are expected to eventually merge into a larger system that will push across the Black Hills and into South Dakota, capable of producing very high winds and prolific lightning.
  • This is a developing forecast, and should be monitored throughout the afternoon and evening hours, particularly in the areas mentioned in the Enhanced (orange) risk area.
  • For the most up-to-date information, be sure to download the NC1 weather app – automatic alerts will be sent straight to your mobile device in the event of severe weather.
  • The Newscenter1 weather team is alert to the conditions will keep you updated with the latest, thank you for trusting us with your forecast!


  • Here is the latest model run for this afternoon and evening, showing a potential scenario for severe weather timeline.

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Strong thunderstorms push through areas East of the Black Hills Thursday morning, here’s a quick look at current radar across the region.

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  • A snapshot of today’s expected conditions includes the chance of thunderstorms in the Black Hills, but more-so as you head East of the Hills.
  • Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the 70s and a few 80s, but humidity will still be a factor going into this afternoon.

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  • Strong storm potential for Thursday highlights areas East of the Black Hills, where large hail will be the main threat with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
  • Areas of Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills themselves could still see thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but will have decreased chances of strong to severe potential.

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  • By noon today, areas North and East of the Black Hills could see thunderstorms fire off and rumble their way Southeast, really picking up strength as they approach the central portions of South Dakota.

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  • Thursday night could feature more isolated thunderstorms firing off in Northeast Wyoming and pushing Eastward through the evening.
  • As we progress into late Thursday and early Friday, storm potential will drop off.

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  • Storm potential drops off for Friday, with temperatures hovering in the 70s and 80s across the region – a relatively nice day expected.

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  • By Friday evening, storm potential will begin to increase through the overnight hours into Saturday across the entire region.
  • Things should remain isolated to start, and build towards greater potential through Saturday morning.

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  • By Saturday, an enhanced (3/5) risk for severe weather is expected, with all modes of severe weather possible in the area shaded orange.
  • Very large hail, gusty winds, flash flooding and even a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
  • Northeast Wyoming and extreme SW and NW South Dakota will be under a Slight (2/5) risk for strong storms, and still have decent potential for impacts.
  • This is a developing forecast, and a better timeline will develop as we get closer to Saturday – something well worth our attention.

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  • No plans need to be necessarily cancelled at this point, but contingency plans should be in place until better specifics are available for the forecast.
  • Have a way to receive warnings, Saturday has the potential to have significant impacts should these parameters verify!

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  • Friday will be our break between systems, with relatively nice conditions preceding stormy ones starting that evening.
  • Breezy conditions will be possible through the next couple days, with a steady Southeasterly winds by Friday going into Saturday.

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  • Sunday and Monday could still see isolated threats for strong storms, but overall storm potential will lessen as we approach early next week.
  • Temperatures could dip into the mid 60s for highs, with drier weather expected as well.
  • Be sure to have a way to receive weather warnings over the next couple of days, it’s that time of year again!
  • Thanks for trusting us with your forecast, we’ll post multiple forecast discussions as things change and the forecast becomes more clear. Stay safe out there! – Brant



Categories: Local News, Weather Daily