UPDATE: Moderate (4/5) Risk for Strong Storms Thursday afternoon/evening

Large hail, high winds and a few tornadoes will be possible in the Black Hills Region Thursday afternoon and evening, ahead of a strong cold front pushing in from Wyoming and Montana

Spc Day 1 Outlook

  • The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a MODERATE (4/5) Risk for strong to severe weather for portions of the Black Hills Region Thursday afternoon and evening.
  • Risks include larger than golf ball sized hail, 70+ MPH wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
  • Initial forecast calls for storms to fire off around 2-4 PM in Wyoming and Montana, before pushing East into the Black Hills and South Dakota by 4-7 PM

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  • There will be no short supply of heat across the area this afternoon.
  • Hot and muggy conditions could make for difficult work outdoors… use caution.

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  • Dew points wont be a problem this afternoon, 55° to 60° will be possible… meaning there is plenty of water in the air to condense into thunderstorms.
  • Notice the dryline setting up this afternoon – this will be the initiation line for thunderstorms.

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  • To boot, High winds behind the cold front could push 60-65 MPH from the Southwest… eventually pushing to the West and Northwest.

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  • These high winds will combine with very dry air behind the front – this has led to Red Flag Warning being issued for portions of NE Wyoming, SE Montana and Harding County, SD

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  • Initial storms could take the form of supercells – isolated strong thunderstorms that generate large hail and gusty winds.
  • This scenario would limit the coverage of thunderstorm activity for the Black hills to a few locations rather than a vast line of storms.
  • These isolated storms would be powerful, however… and would need to be monitored for all modes of severe weather – including isolated tornadoes.

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  • As storms gain access to the rich moisture available East of the Black Hills, they are expected to strengthen and expand in coverage.
  • Areas just East of the Black Hills have the greatest chance of seeing some sort of severe weather as the evening progresses.

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  • Storm activity could continue for the Black Hills late into the evening, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms sneak up behind the main line.
  • Having multiple ways to receive warning will be crucial in staying ahead of the game.

Spc Severe Threat Level

  • In short – changing or altering plans to fit this afternoons timeline is reasonable.
  • This means making sure whatever event or activity you have planned… have a place of shelter nearby, or perhaps alter plans slightly to have an indoor contingency plan.

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  • the NC1 weather app is a great way to stay on top of the latest forecast… and it will automatically update you if any severe weather is imminent for your location.
  • I post my blogs and latest forecast discussions here as well – and its free! you can edit notifications to suit your personal preferences, try it out!
  • If you have an apple phone or Ipad, you can download it HERE
  • If you have an android or tablet, you can download it HERE
Categories: Local News, Weather Daily