Enhanced (3/5) Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday Afternoon/Evening

Strong storms are likely this afternoon, particularly in the Southern portion of our area. Here's the Latest

  • A relatively stormy forecast will start out mostly sunny and dry for the Black Hills, with temperatures creeping up into the 70s for the most part
  • Storms will begin to fire off in Wyoming around 1-3 PM, and race across the region through the Black Hills around rush hour.

  • We have both surface moisture and upper level support for supercell thunderstorms this afternoon, that will quickly form a line this evening and race across the region
  • In the early part of this timeline, particularly in Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills, there will be a large hail and heavy rain threat with the isolated storms, with a few tornado warnings possible as upper level dynamics support rotating thunderstorms this afternoon
  • Once these storms start forming a line sometime around 5 pm, high winds, heavy rain and embedded spin-ups are possible along the main line as it moves Eastward. LArge hail will still be possible, but more isolated once the main line forms.

  • So what does “Enhanced” mean? This is an impacts based rating rather than the -chance- you are to see severe weather.
  • Given the specific impacts of high winds and large hail, those in the enhanced region may want to rethink outside plans for this evening, or at least have a contingency plan!

  • Forecast guidance models show the Black Hills as a big, blotchy stormy mess at the 5 PM hour.
  • I think there will be a little more organizations with these storms, and the Black Hills, including Rapid City, will need to be on guard for some particularly potent thunderstorms.
  • Once these storms form a line, we’ll need to be very careful of high winds, as bowing structures will be possible once they organize
  • Areas South and East of the Black Hills will need to pay particular attention to this, these areas include Pine Ridge, Martin, Wall, Hot Springs, Oelrichs, Kadoka and Chadron, NE

  • Overnight strong storms will push east, but not all storms! Thundershowers will continue to move through the region right through Wednesday morning
  • Shower activity will be on and off, but will pick up and become more widespread for Wednesday afternoon once again

  • Wednesday’s storms are not expected to be as strong as Tuesday’s, but don’t be caught off guard – Heavy rain will continue and areas that are saturated  from Tuesday could have flooding concerns
  • South Central South Dakota could see a few severe storms Wednesday evening, but most strong storms will be through for the Black Hills region by Wednesday

  • Once we get to Thursday, Rainy conditions will continue but will start to become more isolated.
  • Northwesterly winds will start to kick up on the lee side of our system, gusting up to 40 mph and ushering in cool, crisp dry air into the region
  • This is why I have the possibility of patchy frost Thursday night into Friday for the upper elevations of the Black Hills, as clear skies and calmer winds will allow cooler air to settle into the region

We’re going to keep you updated throughout the day today, starting with the initial development storms and as they strengthen across our region. Remember to keep yourself weather aware today, and have a plan! We can’t prevent storms, but we can prepare for them. Thanks for checking in with us for your weather coverage, we’ll continue to keep you updated throughout the day. -Brant

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