Chance of a Boomer or two this Labor Day Weekend: Hot and Humid otherwise

Lots of heat and moisture will be pouring into the Black Hills region this weekend, with a tight lid on the atmosphere. Should that lid break, however...

  • A Generally cloudy, on-and-off rain type of day for the Black Hills with temperatures hovering in the 60s and 70s – very Fall like.
  • Not a complete washout though, I think we get a little break this afternoon going into the early evening hours.

  • We’ve had two days in a row where models show a cluster of thunderstorms grinding their way across the hills Friday night
  • I’m hesitant on the merits of this given the ingredients, (low heat, average moisture) but the Black Hills could provide the enhancement needed for a few storms this evening
  • Most storm activity should push off after the midnight hour, and leave us with perhaps some foggy conditions Saturday morning

  • Saturday is looking pretty good, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s across the region
  • Southeasterly winds will persist through a good portion of the weekend, bringing in heat and moisture.
  • Things will ramp up going into Sunday and Monday, making it feel like the proper Summer we never had

  • Temperatures are expected to hit the mid 80s Sunday, but its the humidity that will really tell the story
  • Thunderstorms are not currently in the forecast per forecast guidance models, but I’m going to argue my case for a few boomers on Sunday
  • PLENTY of heat in the atmosphere and PLENTY of moisture will be available in the Black Hills, particularly the Eastern foothills and the South Dakota Plains.
  • There will be a “cap” on the atmosphere Sunday and Monday, preventing warm air from rising and creating thunderstorms… but banking on that cap holding and no storms to take place is a hard bet.
  • The Black Hills can provide the extra lift and extra “oomf” needed to get at least one storm going… and IF that happens, you’ve got a storm with all the heat and moisture it needs to feed and give and isolated area quite the show this weekend.
  • We’ll track these numbers and see if they verify down the road, but regardless of storm activity you’re going to have a hot and humid Labor day on tap

  • A snapshot of the next three days going into Sunday shows the gradual rise in temperatures, and on Sunday the increased chance for a spot thunderstorm
  • Temperatures could likely top the 90s on Monday, with another chance for a spot thunderstorm in the Black Hills or South Dakota Plains
  • Southeasterly surface winds are mostly to blame here, continuing to pool energy into our region and providing a set-up for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, where unsettled weather looks likely

Make sure you’re aware of just how warm it’ll get this weekend, don’t let the mid 80s fool you. It’s not that we haven’t seen temperatures this warm, its that we haven’t  experienced it for quite some time, and our bodies haven’t really had time to adjust. Monday will feel rather hot, so make sure you’re giving yourself breaks and drink plenty of water to play it safe. We’ve been rather lucky this year to avoid the hot and humid days that usually roast us in August. Once again, I will caution anyone who happens to see a thunderstorm blowing up on Sunday or Monday… they have the chance to really get going should they break the cap. Otherwise, bright blue skies are more likely to grace your warm sunny days. Enjoy this weekend! a Busy schedule will start on Tuesday with a cold front and associated thunderstorms with temperatures dipping back into the 70s. Be safe out there! -Brant

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