Breezy with a few showers Saturday: Mild weather continues into early next week

Another warm sunny day Friday, before a fast moving system will bring breezy conditions and a few showers

  • An even warmer day is on tap for our region, with temperatures well into the 40s and 50s and plenty of sunshine.
  • A few high thin clouds could move through, along with increasing clouds as we approach the afternoon and evening.

  • Even the higher elevations like Custer and Lead could see temperatures well into the 50s with a stout inversion in place.
  • Areas to our northeast like Faith, Lemmon, Dupree, Buffalo and Philip may have a tougher time getting out of the 40s, they’re on the wrong side of the jet stream in this case.

  • Saturday will bring a fast moving system through our region in the morning, bringing spotty chances for rain and a few gusty winds
  • Gusts up to 35 mph from the Northwest, perhaps a little higher in the SD plains as this pushes through into the afternoon

  • There could be a few leftover showers in the afternoon, but most activity will push south leaving only a few areas of drizzle/flurries
  • The Black Hills could see a few snow showers, but little impacts are expected from this – just hold on to your hats!

  • For those hoping to get a jump on deer hunting season in West river, the morning may be a little soggy, with winds picking up as the day continues.
  • Conditions will start to dry out towards the afternoon and evening, but the winds will continue into the 5-7 pm hour.

  • Sunday looks to be a little drier and warmer, with a few breezy conditions sticking around.
  • Clouds will gather once again Sunday evening as another quick moving system pushes South – temperatures should hold steady with a few showers.

DISCUSSION

How about that Black Hills inversion? Cold air is denser, and so it pools into low lying areas much like water finds its way down a mountain into lakes and rivers. These mild conditions are expected to continue until Wednesday, when a proper cold front is expected to move through.

When you look at the map of the jet stream for Wednesday of next week – you notice something very particular. Over the last 2 months or so, we’ve been under Northwest flow – that’s what has been bringing these fast moving clippers and shots of cold air from Canada. Next week however, for the first time in quite some time, our upper level pattern will have a Southwesterly component. So far, forecast guidance does not have much for us next week besides some chances for snow and rain – but I will be watching this closely. This kind of setup is how we get warm, gulf moisture to surge North – something our clippers over the last 2 months have lacked. The most we can do is keep an eye on it for now, its just too far out to make any specific predictions. The hope is that this particular system crosses over the great basin, rather than break out into the Great Plains and then head North. The former would rob the system of a significant portion of gulf moisture and therefore less precipitation. We’ll keep an eye on it, for now lets enjoy the warm and mild weather! Be safe out there! -Brant

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