Sunday Update: Snow moving in, here’s the latest forecasted snow totals

Forecast guidance shows a patchwork of dry areas mixed with winter weather conditions across the Black Hills Region, with Rapid City and areas south and east left out of the main impacts.

UPDATE SUNDAY – 4:45 PM:

  • Rapid City NWS posted new expected snowfall totals
  • Snow is currently falling in the northern hills
  • These amounts don’t reflect the accumulation total
  • Actual accumulation will depend on how much of the snow melts as it hits the ground

You can track the snow using our interactive radar.

Click here to see the interactive radar.

Here are some easy ways to keep track of inclement weather as it moves through the area:

📸 Have weather photos? Share them here.

 

Snowfall1023

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UPDATE SATURDAY – 2:15 PM:

  • Winter weather advisories have been posted for the norther hills and northeastern Wyoming. 2-5 inches of snow is expected to fall.
  • That combined with 45+ mph winds could drop visibility considerably.
  • Accumulation total will be less than 2-5 inches because of warm surface temperatures.

Winter Advisories

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  • A vigorous, fast moving storm system is expected to cross the Black Hills Region Sunday morning through Monday morning, first pushing into Northeastern Wyoming and then crossing into South Dakota Sunday afternoon into early Monday
  • Rain, Snow, below freezing temperatures and high winds are all expected to be potential impacts.
  • Many of these impacts will be localized, excluding large sections of the Black Hills including Rapid City.

Let’s break down the timeline and impacts across the area.

Futurecast 1

  • Rain begins moving into Northeastern Wyoming as early as Sunday morning, with Snow creeping eastward from the foothills of the Bighorns into Sheridan and Johnson County.

Futurecast 2

  • By noon Sunday, a quick advance of rain and snow is expected eastward into Campbell, Crook and Weston County in Wyoming… including also Carter County, Montana.

Wind 1

  • By this time, winds are also starting to pick up our of the Northwest for Sunday afternoon.
  • Note the “quiet” zone in western Pennington county, Eastern Custer county stretching down into Oglala Lakota County… This is downslope action that could result in a “snow shadow” for these areas… leaving most of this area dry.

Futurecast 3

  • Sunday afternoon, our first big batch of action crosses into the Black Hills and portions of western South Dakota.
  • Note the rain/snow line between Rapid City and Sturgis during this point. That means road conditions may be very different along I-90 as you approach Piedmont and Tilford.
  • At this time, blustery snow bands could lead to difficult travel conditions for the Northern Black Hills and Bear Lodge Mountains. This would also include Highway 85 and highway 212.

Futurecast 4

  • There is an expected break in the action sometime Sunday evening as the back edge of the system wraps around for a second wind.
  • Cold air moves in during this time and will likely convert any leftover precipitation from rain into snow.

Wind 2

  • Winds begin to enter their peak intensity early Monday morning, with blowing and drifting snow likely for exposed areas north of the Black Hills and Northeastern Wyoming.

Temperatures

  • With temperatures plummeting below freezing for many areas, these high winds will likely bring wind chill factors in the 20s or even teens… with road surfaces being stripped of their heat quickly. Icy roads…. even in Rapid City and the I-90 corridor will be possible with very little precipitation required.

Futurecast 5

  • A second round of wind and snow is expected for the Northern portion of our area early Monday morning.
  • Notice dry air wrapping around the system, leaving places like Rapid City and areas southeast of the Black hills dry and even in some cases sunny.

Futurecast 6

  • The last traces of precipitable snow bands should be exiting the area by late Monday morning, with temperatures slowly rising above freezing.

Wind 3

  • Winds are expected to be still whipping across the area, even going into Sunday afternoon, so pockets of blowing and drifting snow will still be possible.

Snow Total

  • Snow totals will mostly stick to Northeastern Wyoming and the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.
  • Exceptions could be made for Carter County, Butte county and Harding County where the core of the system is expected to pass close by.
  • Remember, with winds pushing 35-45 MPH sustained… even an inch or two of snow could lead to hazardous travel. Use good judgement in these situations.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

No, there is no reason to clog the grocery stores trying to stash up for a 3 day storm. This will be in and out on a 12 hour time frame, with 50s returning by Tuesday. Ranchers, producers and those traveling through the Black Hills late Sunday into Monday will likely be the audience that needs to pay attention to this storm.

With these snow maps and futurecast maps in mind, there will likely be many rogue “snow bursts” that appear outside of the “designated snow areas”… (Mother nature does not adhere to our nicely drawn maps.) this means that good driving conditions along I-90 or other highways could become hazardous in a matter of minutes. Be sure to check road conditions and radar before you head out the door. We have both of those on our NC1 Weather App… which is free and operated by meteorologists who live and work in the Black Hills.

Thank you for trusting us with your forecast, we take the responsibility seriously and with pride. Stay Safe out there

Brant

 

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily