UPDATE: Black Hills, Rapid City upgraded to Slight (2/5) Risk for Strong Storms Thursday

The original Marginal (1/5) Risk issued by the SPC earlier Thursday morning has been upgraded to a Slight (2/5) Risk for severe weather due to changing forecasted conditions for Thursday afternoon and evening.

7 2 Svr T Storm Warning 1


  • A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Northwestern Custer County and Southwestern Pennington County until 4:00 PM.
  • A Severe Thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of Bear Mountain Lookout or 13 miles northwest of Custer moving northeast at 25 Mph.
  • Hazards include golf ball sized hail, so expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

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11:00 AM UPDATE:

  • The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Black Hills and areas of Western South Dakota to a Slight (2/5) Risk of Strong to severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening.
  • Storms are expected to initiate around 1-3 PM in the higher elevations of the Black Hills and along a line that stretches from the Northern Black Hills to North Dakota.
  • This line of storms will have pockets of large hail and gusty winds as they form a line and push Eastward across the South Dakota Plains.
  • Have a way to receive weather warnings, and monitor weather conditions this afternoon as storms develop.
  • This is an evolving forecast and will be updated throughout the afternoon and evening. Thanks for sticking with Newscenter1! – Brant

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  • Things for the most part will start out sunny and dry across the region, with increasing clouds by the afternoon hours.
  • Storms are expected to fire off along a line from the Black Hills stretching North through Northwest South Dakota.

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  • We have a Marginal (1/5) risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across the region for Thursday afternoon and evening.
  • Remember, this scale does not necessarily measure the *intensity* of thunderstorms, only the confidence level of how widespread said activity will be!
  • Isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible, so make sure to have a way to receive warnings this afternoon and evening.

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  • Temperatures will be warmer today with 80s and 90s across the region.
  • The Black Hills could have a few high 70s at the higher elevations, such as the needles highway and Mount Rushmore.

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  • Thunderstorm activity is expected to kick off right around 1-3 PM as the cap (a layer of warm air preventing upward motion) begins to weaken and allow explosive convective development.
  • These storms are expected to fire along a distinct line, pushing East towards the South Dakota plains into the late afternoon and evening.

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  • Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible along sections of the line as storms strengthen into the afternoon.
  • By around 4-6 Pm these storms will be quickly racing Eastward towards the badlands and Central South Dakota.
  • Notice that thunderstorms activity should be limited on the Wyoming side of things for Thursday.

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  • By the overnight hours, most thunderstorms activity will have pushed Eastward or diminished with the setting sun.

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  • Friday will be warmer, with more chances for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.
  • Seeing as President Trump will be coming in for the Rushmore Fireworks tomorrow, we’ll be paying close attention to this forecast.

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  • There is a Slight (2/5) risk for strong to severe weather in the Northern portions of our area, with a Marginal (1/5) risk towards the Black Hills and the I-90 corridor for Friday.
  • This forecasted area of strong storm activity could shift a bit Southward in the next 24 hours, so it’ll be worth monitoring if you have plans to visit the Black Hills for the Mount Rushmore fireworks event.

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  • Plenty of 90s to go around, with 80s generally across the Black Hills, including Mount Rushmore.

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  • By Friday evening around show-time, isolated thunderstorms will be putting on their own light show in pockets around the Black Hills Region.
  • Whether or not one of these storms could interrupt the fireworks show is still up for debate, but remains low at this point. Coverage of storm activity looks isolated at best, so chances are good that things should proceed without too much trouble.

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  • Saturday (Independence Day!) will be a little bit more of a question mark as to whether storms could interrupt afternoon and evening plans across the Black Hills.
  • Regardless, it’ll be warm over the next couple of days.

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  • Storm activity will increase going into the weekend and early next week, but temperatures could drop into the 70s and 80s by Monday.
  • Make sure to stay tuned for any updates to the forecast for the Rushmore Fireworks Show and 4th of July! Things change quickly around these parts! – Brant


Categories: Local News, Weather Daily