Black Hills Forecast Discussion: Severe weather threat Wednesday
Large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening in portions of Northeastern Wyoming and far Western portions of South Dakota
- A few spot showers are crossing the area this morning, but most of us should stay dry for most of the morning and early afternoon.
- Breezy conditions will begin to pick up from the South once again, with isolated thunderstorms beginning to gather together by the late afternoon.
- We are looking at a distinct threat for strong to severe weather this afternoon and evening, an enhanced (3/5) risk has been issued by the storm prediction center.
- The main area of activity is expected to be in Northeastern Wyoming, specifically in Weston and Crook County.
- This threat will eventually push East into the Western Black Hills and far Western portions of South Dakota.
- Large hail, damaging winds and a distinct flash flood threat will be the main threats with these strong storms.
- An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the parameters are insignificant compared to the other threats we are looking at today.
- For those communities that are located in the “enhanced” region of activity, plans should be made carefully – with the expectations that strong storms will be a part of your afternoon and evening.
- Make sure you have a shelter relatively close by if you do have plans.
- Once again, storms aren’t expected until later on this afternoon, so most of the day will be on the sunny and dry side for most of us.
- By 3 PM however, thunderstorms will start firing off in areas of Northeastern Wyoming, moving South to North at relatively quick speeds.
- If you do find yourself in a severe thunderstorms warning, make sure to take the initiative as these storms will be fast moving and won’t take long to move in.
- Storms will continue pushing North into the evening, with some storms creeping into areas of Western South Dakota.
- So far, areas of the Eastern foothills look to avoid most activity in the early afternoon.
- Storms are expected to continue into the evening hours, eventually pushing through Rapid City and Western South Dakota.
- As the evening progresses, storms will begin to weaken and pose a smaller risk to communities East of the main line.
- Most severe weather will be ending by the midnight hour, with areas East of the Black Hills expecting heavy thundershowers and maybe small hail.
- By Thursday morning, things clear out with just a few pop-up thunderstorms expected in the afternoon.
- We’ll continue to keep things updated throughout the day today.
- Make sure you have a plan! Don’t be caught unprepared in the outdoors when these storms roll through.
- Another round of thunderstorms is expected by Saturday and this weekend.