A True Thumper: Winter Storm Watches issued, well worth watching into Wednesday

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for our area for a potentially significant winter storm event mid-week

Don’t let winter fatigue get you down just yet, another system could impact our area Tuesday night into Thursday and it is well worth watching. Let’s break down the details of what impacts we’re tracking.



A very potent system is possible Late Tuesday into Thursday afternoon, featuring 50-60 mph winds and in some cases, some very heavy snow. Let’s knock out the forecast piece by piece this week first, then we can break down the impacts.

  • Monday through Tuesday will feature warming conditions, with calm winds and plentiful sunshine.
  • Temperatures could reach the low to mid 40’s on Monday, and even the low 50’s for Rapid City on Tuesday
  • This is an excellent time to clean out gutters and storm drains, as all the melting snow could cause some problems otherwise
  • Tuesday night into Thursday will feature one of the more powerful systems to cross the central plains this year
  • Forecast guidance in only the last 12 hours has suggested that we could have a part to play as it crosses Kansas, featuring 50-60 mph winds and areas of possibly very heavy snow. We would be on the Northwest corner of said system.
  • For reference, forecast guidance suggests this low pressure system could drop to 975 MB as it crosses Kansas, that would be a first for Kansas in over 40 years.
  • Thankfully, the heart of the system will pass to our Southeast, but we will need to monitor the track of this system, as its impacts could have far reaching effects, even for the Black Hills.
  • Snow totals for our area have been all over the place, so placing exact accumulation amounts at this point would be premature, better to just circle the areas of most concern, and focus on the high winds and possibility of blowing snow at this time
  • Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday look to hold in the low 30’s during the day, and  the mid teens at night. With high winds, wind chills could be a factor.
  • Things calm down by Friday and into the weekend, With temperatures reaching back into the low 40’s by the weekend, and dry conditions

  • Possible snow accumulations starting Late Tuesday. Forecast Guidance has been very moody with amounts, so its better to just highlight the areas of concern for now, and just assume that heavy snow is possible for the regions highlighted. These amounts will change over the next 24 hours, and specific accumulation amounts will become more clear. I’ll be sure to monitor those developments and post them as confidence grows.

  • Regardless of snow accumulations, there is high confidence that wind will be a big factor. This is the expected winds Late Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

I know there is  fatigue regarding winter storms, and that Saturday was a miss for snow accumulations in Rapid City. All the same, this system could turn out to be a serious impact to travel for a large portions of our region, and is well, well worth watching. The NewsCenter1 weather team will be closely monitoring developments over the next 48 hours, and will post all relevant updates as they become available. My personal advice, use these next two days to clean up any gutters or storm drains that could help alleviate your property from excess snow melt, monitor forecasts closely, and have a contingency plan for the middle part of this week. This is a VERY fluid forecast, as forecast guidance has only now suggested that impacts could be felt in our area, it could very easily go the other way going forward. Whatever the case, we’ll keep you updated.


Categories: Local News, Weather Daily