A New Atmospheric Order: Heat and sunshine brings afternoon thundershowers

Spring if finally heating up, and that means new weather patterns are in store for the Black Hills Region

A true pattern shift has taken place, and it will bring us warm, sunny days with afternoon thundershowers throughout the week. let’s break it down.

  • It’s been a while since we’ve seen this pattern, but we’re familiar with it. A warm sunny morning will give way to chances of thundershowers in the afternoon
  • Temperatures could hit 80° in Rapid City today, with calm northwesterly winds.

  • Whats changed?: the sun angle and length of time the sun is allowed to heat our atmosphere.
  • Once heat overcomes the inversion lid on our atmosphere, it rises up and forces water vapor to condense
  • With enough water vapor and upper level air dynamics, you can get some pretty good thundershowers
  • This will be the story this whole week, save perhaps Wednesday.
  • Friday has enough dynamics and other factors that strong thunderstorms could be possible, but its a little far out to determine that just yet.

  • Short range models suggest the Black Hills will initiate thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, which will then journey out into the Great Plains heading East
  • Most showers will lose strength with sunset, leaving the overnight hours, for the most part, dry

  • Tuesday suggests a little more coverage, that continues into the evening hours
  • Some of these storms over the next week may pack a little bit of a punch, but very few if any are expected to be strong or severe
  • Our best chance for a few stronger storms will be on Friday


  • This weekend shows a good chance for cooler temperatures for the Western half of the United States
  • Temperatures in the high 50’s to low 60’s could be in store from Sunday going into next week

  • Rain chances will still be above normal going into this weekend and early next week
  • This will be on top of any rain we receive this week with afternoon thundershowers

ENJOY the warmer weather, just be sure to look for thundershower activity in the hills in the afternoon. May be better to hike in the mornings and then be off the Hills by 3-5 PM throughout the week. Wednesday looks dry enough where an all day hike could be more feasible.

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Categories: Local News, Weather Daily