11/2 Forecast Discussion – Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the Black Hills

UPDATE 3:15 P.M –

Latest model trends at 3:15 P.M. remain steady on snow amounts, and even bring the accumulations down for some areas. Surface temperatures for both the Northern Black Hills and the foothills look to be above freezing for most of the evening. Sometime between 3-5 AM surface temperatures look to finally fall below freezing for areas of Deadwood and Lead, and accumulations should begin to build on not only grassy areas but could also begin to impact road travel.

Specifically when these roadways fall below freezing will greatly determine travel impacts for Saturday morning and overall accumulations. Regardless of accumulations, Winds will be gusting in the range of 35-50 MPH from the Northwest before Dawn, and will no doubt cause travel problems if mixed with moderately heavy snowfall.

Rapid City and locations at lower elevations will see mostly rain, but should still use caution as roads could still be slippery in places.

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 P.M. SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS, INCLUDING ONEILL PASS TO DEERFIELD. IMPACTS INCLUDE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5,000 FEET AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH

Friday Evening: Rain will begin to mix with snow and eventually transition to all snow in higher elevations, with rain showers continuing elsewhere. Temperatures will dip into the low 40s and upper 30s in the foothills and plains, while places like Deadwood and Keystone will dip below freezing. Winds will pick up significantly going into Saturday morning, gusts up to 45 MPH from the northwest. Road conditions could deteriorate quickly with heavier periods of snow and blowing snow Saturday morning.

GFS model for precipitation Friday Evening into Saturday Evening

GFS Model – Expected Snow Accumulations through Saturday Evening

Tomorrow: Rain will continue to mix with some snow in the foothills and plains while higher elevations will continue to see snow. Sometime during the afternoon snow should quickly exit the area leaving mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 30s in places like Rapid City and Sturgis, and mid-20s in areas like Hill City and Deadwood/Lead.

CLOCKS ARE MOVED ONE HOUR BACK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY

Sunday and beyond: Things generally dry out Sunday morning, with cooler temperatures. Partly cloudy skies will give way to mostly cloudy skies as another shot of moisture moves through the area Sunday night with chances of light snow/rain for the Black Hills. Daily chances of flurries and light snow will be the pattern going into next week, with highs struggling to reach 40 degrees, and lows dipping into the low 20s at night, and in some cases reaching the high teens in places like Rapid City. Even cooler temperatures can be expected in the  Hills.

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Keystone, SD 9/28/2018

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily