3 Days of Storms: Severe weather potential increased for the Black Hills Region

Saturday, Sunday and Monday are expected to be active severe weather days for the Black Hills Region, with specific areas expecting different impacts each day.

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  • Severe weather is expected to impact the Black Hills over the next several days, with each day highlighting a different specific area with different impacts.
  • Saturday evening kicks off our first round, with most of Saturday expecting to be warm and humid.

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  • A few supercell thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, impacting areas from Southeastern Montana through NW South Dakota and into the central portion of the state.
  • Rapid City and the Black Hills should stay alert, but most impacts look to stay North from the latest guidance.

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  • Short range guidance suggests a large supercell complex, or series of thunderstorms crossing from SE Montana into Crook County/NW South Dakota sometime after 5-7 PM.
  • These storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the hail possibly exceeding 2″ at times.
  • Those in the projected path should take precautions against the possibility of damaging hail.

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  • Dew Points Saturday afternoon (and through Monday really) are expected to crest 60° in some areas.
  • This parameter is important when forecasting severe weather, as dew points are usually the limiting factor for storms in the Black Hills. That won’t be the case this weekend.

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  • Saturday’s slight risk for South Dakota is mostly due to the fact that thunderstorms are expected to be relatively isolated in nature. However, These isolated storms are expected to be significant. 
  • That is to say that most of us will likely miss today’s severe weather – particularly South of I-90… but if you do happen to fall under a severe thunderstorm warning this afternoon you should carefully watch developments.

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  • That will not be the case Sunday, as severe weather is expected to be more widespread through the Black Hills Region.
  • Afternoon and evening thunderstorms could be strong, with all modes of severe weather being possible… including isolated tornadoes.
  • The Storm Prediction Center will likely consider an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk (3/5)  for us before tomorrow morning.

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  • So far Sunday looks to be broken up into two distinct acts… with Sunday afternoon featuring a few isolated strong storms in the afternoon crossing portions of the Black Hills.

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  • Sunday evening looks to present a second chance for severe weather, with large hail, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes being possible.

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  • Monday also features a risk of severe weather across the Black Region, with all modes of severe weather being possible once again.
  • We will need to wait for more data to come in to nail down specifics, but the parameters appear to be in place for a third day of severe weather.

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  • After Monday, things look to stabilize and warm up through the weekend, with just a few isolated chances for thunderstorms.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Those living in Carter County, Montana… Crook County Wyoming, and anyone North and Northeast of the Black Hills should pay attention Saturday late afternoon and evening. Today’s forecast is tricky to communicate… because although impacts are expected to be very isolated – those isolated areas could receive significant storms capable of damage to life and property.

Sunday and Monday, everyone living in the Black Hills Region should be on alert. We have the ingredients… including sufficient dew points. Dew Points in the Black Hills have been a steadfast indicator of severe potential; HOW severe will these storms be? With sufficient surface moisture… its safe to assume that these storms can really take off.

Be safe this weekend… don’t take unnecessary risks. If you plan on being outdoors, have a contingency plan and a safe structure to go to should things go downhill. This will likely go down as the strongest storms we’ve seen in 2022.

Have a way to receive warnings. The NC1 Weather app will automatically alert you to watches or warnings you are placed under, no matter your location. It’s catered specifically to the Black Hills Region, and is always updated with local forecasts from actual meteorologists  who live and work here in the Black Hills.

Thank you so much for trusting us with your forecast, we understand there is more at stake than just recreational plans. We’ll be with you through whatever may come.

-Chief Meteorologist Brant Beckman

 

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Categories: Local News, Weather Daily