11/8 Forecast Discussion: It’s not THAT cold

Fall teases the Black Hills with warmer temperatures Saturday, before a new system takes command next week

GOES – 16 Satellite 11/8/2018 at 11:48 A.M.

Today: Variable cloudiness blankets the hills, while some are seeing plenty of sunshine. Temperatures regardless are struggling to leave the mid-20s in places like Rapid City. Winds are generally out of the northwest at 10-15 mph with a few gusts at 25 mph. Precipitation will taper off west to east, with most exiting the area by this afternoon.

NAM 3K Temperature Model today through Friday morning

Tonight: Clouds will increase as another chance of light snow enters our area. Temperatures in many cases could drop into the single digits. If clouds stick around and keep the area insulated, however, some heat could be retained and temperatures could hold around the mid-teens. Light snow is possible, but models are in general disagreement about exactly where this system is going to set up. The northern Black Hills look to be the most likely area at this time. Wind chills could reach below zero with NW winds.

Tomorrow: Chilly. Single digits and teens for most of the hills as you wake up, with clouds decreasing as the morning progresses. Friday looks to be a generally sunny and chilly day, with highs only reaching the mid-20s in the foothills and plains.

NAM 3K Precipitation outlook through Saturday Morning

Tomorrow Night: Increasing clouds. Models are starting to hint at a little burst of energy in the Northern Hills Friday night into Saturday morning, but once again, there is much disagreement. Snow flurries possible. Temperatures once again will dip into the teens Friday night, but southeasterly winds will begin to set up, bringing warmer temperatures going into Saturday morning.

GFS Temperature outlook Monday through Wednesday

Saturday and beyond: Gusty Southeasterly winds will be bringing warmer temperatures throughout the morning and afternoon on Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures could reach the mid-40s. A wind advisory has not been posted, but gusty 40 mph winds will be a possibility. Saturday night into Sunday – once again – has models trying to get a little something going in the Northern Hills. Several waves are moving through the Black Hills like ripples in a pond. If you’re on the up – at the right time – you could get a burst of snow. The timing will matter greatly in each of these cases individually. Just be prepared – it is November in South Dakota.

Veterans Day looks to be cool but sunny. Bundle up and enjoy the Veterans Day parade. Sunday into Monday has the chance for more flurries before things warm up by the middle of next week. Dry conditions with temperatures in the mid-50s are possible by Wednesday, with the introduction of a high-pressure system.

Wind Cave National Park

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily, Weather Team