11/28 Forecast Discussion: Here we go again

Mild conditions give way to another possible storm system this weekend

GOES-16 Satellite

TODAY: Mostly cloudy skies with a few spots getting sunshine and a few spots getting showers. Highs will reach the high 40s and low 50s for most, with northwesterly winds at about 5-10 mph. East River counties are currently under winter weather advisories that remain until 11:30 Wednesday morning.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies with westerly winds developing at about 5-10 mph. Given the westerly component to the winds, Chinook winds are a distinct possibility, so low temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 40s in some areas, while other valleys and regions have temperatures just below freezing.

FutureCast Satellite Radar

THURSDAY: Variable cloudiness Thursday. Temperatures are going to be warmer in areas of sunshine, in the high 40s if not 50 degrees. Winds will shift southeast sometime during the day at around 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: If southeast winds hold, temperatures should hold a little higher in the Southern Plains, while the Hills cool off. High 20s for most of the region. Clouds increase toward Friday morning.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND: A brief period of rain/snow mix in the morning will give way to spotty showers in the afternoon. Temperatures should reach the low 40s, so any precipitation the foothills receive should be in the form of rain. Friday evening has chances of precipitation increasing. Depending on the timing of cooler air that is expected, it could take a while before rain finally transitions into snow going into Saturday morning.

GFS Precipitation Model – Notice that the GFS has this system barely scraping the southern edge of our area. Should this system deviate further south, far less impacts could be the result

Saturday looks messy at this point, but some recent models show the track of the storm system missing us to the south, with the panhandle of Nebraska and Cheyenne, Wyoming receiving the brunt of the deformation zone (northwest edge of the low-pressure system). Should the track shift north, more impacts can be expected for our area, specifically the Southern Hills and the southeastern portion of our viewing area.

No accumulation amounts at this time – too much is still on the table as far as variation goes. What we are confident about is a drop in temperature as we go from Saturday into Sunday. Highs will only reach the low 30s on Saturday, and by next week, highs will only reach the low 20s with single digits at night.

ECMWF 500 mb Height Anomalies through next week – Much of the country looks to be cold next week, with ensembles hinting at a slight ridging pattern late next week.

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily