11/19 Forecast Discussion: Turkeys and T-shirts

High pressure keeps us high dry and warm, but trouble brews in the West

GOES-16 11/19 Northern Plains Sunrise

Today: The few flurries that remain should exit the area by this afternoon. Clouds will stick around, with highs struggling to break the low 40s. Cloud cover will prevent otherwise warmer temperatures. Winds will be northwesterly at 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: The ridge of high pressure unpacks its bags and is here to visit for the next couple of days. Tuesday will be sunny and warm with highs in the upper 50s. At this point, 60s can’t be ruled out if sunshine is persistent. With drier air accompanying the high pressure, the environment will be more susceptible to temperature swings.

Tuesday night will have lows dip below freezing, in the high 20s with mostly clear skies. Winds will be westerly to northwesterly, at 5-10 mph. Given these wind directions, Chinook winds could come into play for places like Sturgis and Spearfish, so warmer overnight low temperatures are possible.

GFS 700 mb temperature, heights, and winds – this upper atmosphere reading shows how the ridge of high pressure slides across our area between today and Thanksgiving.

Wednesday: A slight dip in high temperatures, low 50s, won’t prevent the dry, sunny weather from continuing. Given the amount of sunshine and persistent dry air, mid-50s could still be on the table. Wednesday evening could be a carbon copy of Tuesday night with partly cloudy skies and high 20s for the low temperatures. Winds look to remain on the westerly side, so Chinook winds once again could come into play Wednesday evening.

Thanksgiving: Gorgeous. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to once again rebound to the high 50s if not the low 60s by the afternoon. Outdoor activities are encouraged, and high pressure will continue to secure dry, sunny conditions through this time period. Low 30s for Thursday evening, so be sure to bring your favorite ugly sweater.

ECMWF temperature trend model – notice that after Thanksgiving, the hand of wind seemingly dips down into the northern plains, bringing with it the possibility of some robust unsettled weather

Friday and Beyond: The forecast becomes both unsettled and uncertain past Friday. The ridge looks to break down, with that breakdown being defined by a rather stout cold front Friday or Saturday. Temperatures look to still make it to the 50s on Friday, but if that holds all day is questionable. A rather robust system should be pushing its way through the Great Basin, and into the foothills of the Rockies and the Black Hills during this time period. Frozen precipitation is not 100 percent guaranteed this weekend but should be prepared for just in case.

Anybody traveling through Denver this weekend or near the Rocky Mountains should watch forecasts carefully, the East Coast looks to also see impacts during and afterThanksgivingg. Have a contingency plan, and if you have connecting flights or must drive long distances, plan to give yourself plenty of time just in case. Colder and unsettled weather looks likely this weekend, going into next week.

Black Hills Sunset – 11/17/2018

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily