11/15 Forecast Discussion: The Flurry Express

A one-two punch this weekend of windy, then snowy weather will rebound by next week

GOES-16 Satellite, 11/15/2018 4:26 A.M. Northern Plains

Today: Temperatures will be mild to start, with high 40s near the hills and mid-30s in the plains. Highs will struggle to get above the low 50s as a cool front pushes through our area. Mostly clear skies will give way to breezy conditions this morning into this afternoon. Northwesterly winds could gust up to 45 mph. A wind advisory has been posted for those areas affected. Sweater weather for today.

WIND ADVISORY – The following counties are under a wind advisory until 3 P.M., Northwesterly winds could gust up to 45 mph as a cold front pushes through the area

TonightAs the ridge of high pressure continues to break down, clouds will increase going into Thursday night. Winds will start to decrease and shift southwesterly, with lows dipping into the high 20s.

GFS Precipitation Model through Saturday Evening, Notice that a dry slot looks to develop in the system. Whether or not that affects us will have big impacts on our overall snow totals

Friday: A fast-moving clipper from Canada will dip into Montana and northeastern Wyoming around lunchtime going into the afternoon hours, before finally pushing through western South Dakota and the Black Hills. This cold front will be more robust than Thursday’s, bringing precipitation and much cooler temperatures with it. With highs in the mid-40s, most precipitation will start out as rain, before quickly transitioning to snow in the afternoon and evening hours as the temperature drops. No travel impacts are expected for Friday during the morning and lunchtime hours.

GFS Snow Accumulation Model through Saturday evening, This should not be taken literally, as snow amounts will vary greatly with even small changes to the forecast.

Friday evening going into Saturday: Lows will dip into the mid-teens, and by the 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. hour, most areas of the Black Hills will have transitioned fully to snow. Moisture content and timing will be important in how much snow the Black Hills area receives. Depending on when the switch-over between rain to snow happens and how quickly roads begin to accumulate snow will determine immediate travel impacts. Higher elevations and portions of Montana/northeastern Wyoming will likely experience travel impacts first. This will be a quick, but at times, moderately strong band of snowfall in the overnight hours.

At this time (and these amounts can and will change), accumulations between 1-3 inches can be expected in and around the hills. Some locations may see more; some may see little to none at all. As we approach Friday evening, we will be able to narrow down impacts to more specific areas, with a better range of accumulation estimations. The Southern Hills will likely see the last bits of snowfall toward Saturday morning, with most of the precipitation clearing out completely by Saturday afternoon, with high temperatures only in the mid-20s.

ECMWF Long Range Temperature Model – Warm, dry weather looks to be moving in just in time for thanksgiving

Sunday and Beyond: High Pressure will fight back to regain control of our region, with a warming trend looking likely going into next week. Dry, sunny conditions between Sunday and thanksgiving look likely, with Thanksgiving weekend showing signs of another chance of colder air, and precipitation. High 40s to low 50s for high temperatures look likely for next week.

Categories: Local News, Weather Daily, Weather Team